[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 040235
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Katia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122023
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 04 2023

Deep convection has been on the decline and only a small area of
thunderstorms remain well north of the center.  A recent ASCAT pass
showed peak winds in the 25-30 kt range, and based on that data,
Katia has been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. This value
is also in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates.

The depression is moving slowly west-northwestward.  A slow
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for about
another day before the system reverses course and drifts
southeastward in the flow between a low- to mid-level ridge to
its west and a deep-layer low to the northeast.  Only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one
lies near the various consensus models.

West-southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air should continue
to weaken Katia, and this system will likely become a remnant low
in 12 to 24 hours.  Dissipation is expected in 3 to 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 27.1N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 27.5N  33.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 28.1N  34.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 28.4N  34.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 28.3N  34.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1200Z 27.9N  33.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 27.4N  33.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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