[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 030842
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

Gert appears to be maintaining its intensity for the time being, in
spite of the presence of strong northeasterly vertical wind shear.
The system has been producing a blob of deep convection to the
southwest of the estimated center and the low-level circulation is
still fairly well defined on GOES-16 proxy-vis imagery.  The
current intensity is kept at 50 kt for this advisory in agreement
with an Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate from UW-CIMSS.

The tropical storm is accelerating north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed of around 10 kt.  A north-northeastward to
northward motion with a continued increase in forward speed is
likely during the next day or so as Gert becomes entrained into the
eastern portion of the much larger circulation of Post-Tropical
Cyclone Idalia.  Global model guidance shows the system becoming
absorbed by Idalia and dissipating in 24 hours or so.  The official
forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 29.9N  52.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 32.2N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 36.3N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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