[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 020838
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

This morning's conventional satellite imagery and a recent AMSR2
microwave overpass indicate some improvement in the cloud pattern
overnight, although Gert's surface center remains near the
northern edge of the convective canopy where the colder cloud top
temperatures are evident.  The subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have increased a bit during the past 6 hours,
and the initial intensity is bumped up to 40 kt for this advisory.

Gert's intensity shouldn't change much during the next few days
while the cyclone continues moving in a harsh northerly wind shear
environment. Gert is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone
during the next couple of days as indicated in the global
models fields and their simulated infrared imagery forecasts.
Afterwards, Gert is expected to become absorbed by Post-Tropical
Idalia.  The official intensity forecast follows the IVCN intensity
consensus aid through the period and indicates dissipation in 60
hours.

Gert should commence a northward track later today while the
southerly peripheral steering flow of larger Idalia captures the
cyclone and a subtropical ridge builds westward over the central
tropical Atlantic.  There is quite a bit of along-track spread of
the models, however, so the best solution for the NHC forecast
track is to side with the consensus models, HCCA and TVCA through
dissipation early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 27.7N  54.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 28.0N  53.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 29.2N  53.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 30.8N  52.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 33.4N  51.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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