[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida
Big Bend to the east Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds and very
rough seas are noted in the wake of the front. Winds may reach
storm-force in gusts, mainly over the SW Gulf late today through
Wed, with seas building to 20 ft. The front will move SE of the
basin by Wed morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale
force over the SW Gulf by Wed evening.

Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough near the Senegal/Guinea
Bissau border then continues SW to near 05N36W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N36W to 04N43W to 10N59.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 20W and 33W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N
to 08.5N east of 17W. This convective activity is affecting parts
of the coasts of Liberia and Sierra Leone.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the E Bay of
Campeche. This front will continue to move across the Gulf waters
followed by gale force winds and very rough seas. Please, see the
Special Features section for more details.

A wide band of mainly low clouds with possible showers is associated
with the front. This cloudiness is banked up along the E slope of
the Sierra Madre Mountains where drizzle has been reported.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend
to the E Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds and very rough seas are
noted in the wake of the front. Winds may reach severe gale with
seas building to 20 ft over the Bay of Campeche late today through
Wed. The front will move southeast of the basin by Wed morning.
Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force over the Bay of
Campeche by Wed evening. Winds and seas will also begin to
diminish across the NW Gulf on Wed, and across much of the basin
on Thu. However, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will
continue to affect the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through
Fri before diminishing Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of
low pressure (AL97) over the eastern Caribbean Sea has diminished
and not become any better organized this afternoon. Although
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for further
development during the next several days while the system moves
westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, a
tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America towards the
end of the week. Currently, this system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance
through 7 days.

An elongated area of low pressure remains over the central Caribbean,
with a surface trough extending northward across eastern Cuba.
Recent scatterometer imagery confirmed the cyclonic circulation
of a 1009 mb low pressure just S of Jamaica near 17N76W. Showers
and thunderstorms are observed over parts of eastern Jamaica and
southeastern Cuba in association with this feature. Elsewhere
across most of the central and NW Caribbean light and variable
winds prevail with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. Moderate E to SE
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are occurring in the eastern
Carribbean.

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure over the E Caribbean
Sea continues to produce a large area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development during the next several days while the system
moves westward over the central and SW Caribbean Sea, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this
week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds are expected across the
basin through earA trough of low pressure (AL97) over the eastern
Caribbean Sea ly Wed. A strong cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean Wed morning, and begin to stall from E Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras Thu morning, then drift westward Fri, before
dissipating on Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas
will follow the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak area of low pressure is located near 27.5N75.5W. No
significant convection is depicted in association with this low.
A surface trough extends from the low southward across the north
of central Bahamas. Divergence aloft is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 25.5N between 66W
and 71W.

High pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge southward
across the waters between 56W and 63W. Another low pressure
system is near 25N50W. Fresh NE winds are mainly on the NW and NE
sides of the low center with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Another low
pressure of 1013 mb is located outside of our area near 32N23.5.
However, this area of low pressure is generating fresh to locally
strong winds, with seas 8 to 10 ft from 27N to 31N between 30W
and 38W. Another surface low pressure outside of our area is near
33N13W. A surface trough extends from this low into our area and
is producing isolated to scattered moderate convection along its
axis. South of the trough, mainly light to gentle winds are seen
based on satellite derived wind data. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate
most of the Atlantic forecast waters S of 24N and E of 60W.
Lastly, scattered showers and thunderstorms related to an upper-
level low are affecting the waters E of the Lesser Antilles from
9.5N to 15N between 47W and 51.5W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak low is centered just northeast
of the NW Bahamas this morning. This system will move
northeastward ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The front
is expected to enter the NW waters late tonight, reach from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu morning, then gradually move
back westward to the NW Bahamas by Fri morning, before dissipating
on Sat. Strong to near gale NE winds are expected behind the
front through Sat.

$$
KRV
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