[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Oct 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A cold front is passing through the Florida Big Bend, into
the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico near 20N at the coast of Mexico. Expect gale-
force NW to N winds, and sea heights that range from 10 feet
to 14 feet, from 20N to 25N to the west of the cold front.
Expect also: NW to N winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and
sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, elsewhere to
the west of the cold front. The 24-hour forecast position
for the cold front is: 28N83W TO 22N90W TO 18.5N93W. Expect
NW to N gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from
12 feet to 18 feet, from 23N southward to the west of the
cold front. Moderate to fresh winds are to the east and to
the southeast of the cold front. Rough to very rough seas
are from 90W westward. Slight seas are from 90W eastward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to
the east and to the southeast of the cold front.

Please, read the latest NHC High Seas forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal borders of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 11N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 11N18W, to 07N30W, 06N38W 04N43W 05N50W 10N62W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 17N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the Gulf of Mexico cold front. Gale-force winds, and rough
to very rough sea heights, are associated with the cold front.

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to near
Veracruz, Mexico. The front will move SE across the entire
basin by Wed evening with gale-force winds and quickly
building seas following the front through Wed. Winds may
reach storm-force in gusts mainly over the SW Gulf late
Tue through Wed with seas building to 20 ft. Winds and
seas will begin to subside from the NW on Thu as the
front stalls across the NW Caribbean and central Bahamas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

INVEST-AL97: A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 16N66W,
in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 210 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant, and within 150 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 210 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Moderate
seas are in the eastern half of the eastern one-third of the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh SE winds are to the east of the 1008 mb
low pressure center. Gentle winds are elsewhere from 70W
eastward. The precipitation pattern for this feature is
beginning to show signs of organization. This system is
expected to move westward during the next several days.
The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
more development. It is likely for a tropical depression
to form by the latter part of this week, as the system
enters the central or the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
This system has the potential to produce heavy rains in
parts of Central America toward the end of this week.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 17N76W, just to the
south of the eastern part of Jamaica. A surface trough
extends from the low pressure center to Panama near 09N82W.
A surface trough also extends northward along 76W beyond
SE Cuba. An east-to-west oriented surface trough extends
from the Cayman Islands beyond northern Belize.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 17N to
Jamaica between 75W and 77W. Scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is in the NE two-thirds of Nicaragua.
Isolated moderate is spread throughout the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight seas, are in the
rest of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 31/0000 UTC, are: 0.51 in Curacao, and 0.08 in
Guadeloupe.

A trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that
is beginning to show signs of organization. This system is
expected to move westward during the next several days, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form by the
latter part of this week as the system enters the central
or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
winds are expected across the basin through early Wed.
A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean midday
Wed and begin to stall from central Cuba to Belize on Thu,
then begin to drift westward Fri and Sat. Fresh to strong
N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

...INVEST-AL96 in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean...

A 1005 mb low pressure center is near 26N76W. A surface
trough is along 75W/76W from 31N southward, beyond
SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 60W westward. The precipitation has become
minimal. This system is embedded in a region of very
dry mid-latitude air with strong upper level winds. More
development of this system is no longer anticipated.
The system is forecast to turn northward slowly, and then
northeastward by the middle part of this week.


A surface trough is along 30N11W, to a 1008 mb low pressure
center that is near 31N18W. The trough continues to a first
1012 mb low pressure center that is near 32N29W. The trough
continues to 27N40W, to a second 1012 mb low pressure center
that is near 26N48W, and finally to 22N55W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward
from 60W eastward.

Moderate to fresh winds are within a 240 nm radius of each
low pressure center. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in
the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 28N
northward from 40W eastward. Moderate seas are elsewhere
in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 20N46W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean that is
from 10N to the 30N11W 22N55W surface trough, from 60W
eastward.

A well-defined area of low pressure is located near
26.5N75.5W or about 80 miles east of the northwestern
Bahamas. This system is forecast to turn slowly northward
and then northeastward by the middle part of this week.
A surface trough extends from the low southward through
the central Bahamas. A strong cold front is expected to
enter the NW waters Wed morning, reach from Bermuda to
the central Bahamas Thu morning, then stall from 31N60W
to the central Bahamas Thu night. Strong winds with gusts
to gale-force are expected behind the front through
Thu night.

$$
mt/gr
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