[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will push off
the Texas coast on Monday morning, with strong to near
gale-force N to NW winds expected behind the front. As the front
moves eastward across the basin, gale-force winds will develop
behind the front along the coast of Mexico by Monday afternoon.
Seas will build to 10 to 16 ft. As the front continues moving
across the Gulf on Monday night and into Tuesday, gale-force
winds will also develop near Veracruz by early Tue morning. Seas
are expected to build 12 to 21 ft. Across the rest of the Gulf,
widespread fresh to strong winds with 8 to 10 ft seas can be
expected. The front will exit the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
The gale-force winds will come to an end by Wednesday night.
Fresh to strong winds will continue across most of the basin
into next weekend. Seas will begin to subside toward the end of
the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas forecast at
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A broad area of low
pressure, Invest AL96, is located to the E of the central Bahamas
with 1007 mb low center near 24N71W. Environmental conditions
are becoming less conducive for development, though a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could still form during the next day
or so while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward.
By Tuesday, however, strong upper-level winds and dry air should
end the chances of further development while it turns northward.
Regardless of development, this system is producing gale force
winds from 25N to 27N between 69W and 73W, and a broader area of
fresh to strong winds from 21N to 29N W of 64W. Gale force winds
are forecast to diminish later tonight. Please read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook and latest NHC High Seas at
hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 12N16W
to 11N18W. The ITCZ extends from 11N18W to 06N30W to 06N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N between
14W and 42W, and from 06N to 13N between 39W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered across the middle Atlantic coastal states
extends westward to central Louisiana. This is giving benign
conditions across the basin with no significant convection.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin, except for
fresh easterlies across the Florida Straits and portions of the SE
basin. Seas basin-wide are between 3 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will settle southward to along
about 32N Mon through Tue. A strong cold front will enter the NW
Gulf Mon morning, and move SE across the entire basin by Wed
evening. This front will bring gale force winds and quickly
building seas over the western Gulf Mon thru Wed night. Winds and
seas will diminish significantly NW portions late Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
Invest 96L, which is located north of the Dominican Republic and
east of the central Bahamas. A trough extends south of this low
to Hispaniola. Heavy rainfall from this system along the trough
could continue across the NE Caribbean through the next week,
which could worsen any ongoing flooding hazards.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from the central
Caribbean to a 1008 mb low near 14N76W to the coast of southern
Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N
between 7W and 84W. Moderate southerly winds are noted south of
the monsoon trough and the low pressure. Gradual development is
possible while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 kt.
The chances of formation are low within 48 hours and low in 7
days.

Outside of Invest 96L and the monsoon trough and low pressure in
the central Caribbean, isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
Gulf of Honduras. Outside of that, no significant convection is
noted across the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient across the NW
Caribbean and SE U.S. is weakening, which is leading to moderate
to locally fresh winds in the NW portion of the basin. Light to
gentle winds are noted across the rest of the basin based on the
latest scatterometer data. Seas range 3 to 5 ft across the
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the elongated low pressure extending from the
nearby Atlantic along 70W and trough shift W-NW and into the W
central Caribbean through early this week, with winds diminishing
across the NW Caribbean later today. Scattered strong
thunderstorms will shift westward with the trough through Mon.
Large N-NE swells across the W Atlantic will continue to move
through the NE Caribbean Passages through today. A strong cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
Invest 96L positioned north of the Dominican Republic.

Surface ridging extends across the southwest N Atlantic anchored
by high pressure in the SE U.S. The pressure gradient between this
high pres and Invest 96L is leading to moderate to fresh winds
off the Florida and Bahamas coast. Buoys and altimeter data show
seas are ranging 6 to 9 ft. Seas up to 8 ft extend as far south as
the Leeward Islands.

East of Invest 96L, surface ridging extends across the central
and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1017 mb high pres near 24N41W.
Under the influence of this high, scatterometer data shows gentle
to moderate winds with seas ranging 5 to 8 ft. South of Post-
Tropical Cyclone Tammy, seas ranging 8 to 12 ft are noted from 29N
northward between 49W and 57W. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold
front extends from 31N23W to 29N35W then becomes stationary from
that point to 30N38W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are noted
N of the front, and moderate SW winds S of the front. Light to
gentle winds are noted around the stationary front. Seas range 8
to 9 ft near the front. Light to gentle winds are noted across the
rest of the eastern Atlantic with seas 6 to 10 ft per altimeter
data.

For the forecast W of 55W, Invest 96L will shift NW through Mon
before weakening. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could
form later today. By Monday, however, strong upper-level winds
and dry air should end the chances of further development. Expect
strong winds to near gale-force near the low center and numerous
strong thunderstorms along and E of the trough extending into the
NE Caribbean through tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure centered
across the middle Atlantic states extends eastward and to the N of
the trough and low, while Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy is near 32N
53.5W at 11 AM EDT, moving E-SE east at 15 kt. A strong cold
front will enter the NW waters Wed.

$$
Ramos
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