[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane
Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 29 2023

Updated to include the latest information on Invest 96L off
Hispaniola

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Tammy is centered near 33.2N 57.0W at 28/2100 UTC
or 400 nm E of Bermuda, moving E at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 19 ft. Tammy is expected to
gradually turn southward and eventually southwestward as a
remnant low early next week. Some weakening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Tammy is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tammy
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Invest 96L: A 1008 mb low pressure is near 20N68W, or about 175
nm NE of the Dominican Republic. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased mainly over the northern and eastern
quadrants. The system is producing strong to near gale-force
winds. Seas in the area are 7-11 ft, primarily due to the swell
associated with Tammy. While upper-level winds are only
marginally conducive for further development, this system could
become a short-lived tropical depression or storm over the next
day or so. By Monday, upper-level winds are forecast to become
too strong for further development as the system turns northward
to the east of the northwestern Bahamas. The chance of
development over the next 48 hours is medium. Please read the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 07N37W to 07N54W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 17N between
32W and 46W, and from 07N to 15N between 47W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb center of high pressure over the SE United States
extends southwestward to the central Gulf of Mexico. A tight
pressure gradient between the ridge and Tropical Depression 19-E
located over Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters currently
supports fresh to strong winds along the Florida Straits and
portions of the SE Gulf of Mexico. Seas over these regions are in
the 5 to 9 ft range. Elsewhere in the eastern half of the basin,
winds are moderate to fresh from the east with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
In the western half of the gulf, winds are mainly moderate from
the east-southeast, except off the coast of Yucatan where fresh to
locally strong NE winds are noted.

For the forecast, high pressure centered across the middle
Atlantic coastal states will continue to support fresh to locally
strong winds in the southeast and south central Gulf through Sun.
Gentle NE winds are expected by Mon as the pressure gradient
weakens and high pressure settles over the region. A strong cold
front will enter the NW Gulf Mon morning, and move SE across the
entire basin by Wed evening. This front will bring gale force
winds and quickly building seas over the western Gulf beginning
Mon evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure centered over the middle Atlantic U.S. coast
is combining with elongated low pressure across the Caribbean
along 68W-69W and into the adjacent Atlantic to support fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds in the NW Caribbean. East of 67W,
winds are mainly moderate and from the east-southeast and seas
are 5 to 6 ft. In the central and SW Caribbean, winds are light to
gentle with slight seas.

For the forecast, the trough and associated low will shift W-NW
through early next week, with winds diminishing across the NW
Caribbean on Sun. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms
occurring along and E of the trough will shift westward with the
trough through Mon. Large N-NE swell across the W Atlantic will
continue to move through the NE Caribbean Passages through Sun. A
strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY.

Tropical Storm Tammy is near 33.2N 57.0W at 5 PM EDT, and is
moving east at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts
to 50 kt. Minimum central pressure is 997 mb. High pressure
across the middle Atlantic coastal states is combining with a low
level trough than extends from S of Tammy to 1008 mb low pressure
located just N of the Mona Passage to produce a large area of
fresh to locally strong winds, with high seas between Tammy and
the Bahamas. The remaining central and eastern subtropical
Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge that is
anchored by a 1020 mb high near 28N41W. This is providing mainly
light to gentle variable winds with seas to 7 ft, except for
moderate to fresh NE winds and seas to 9 ft E of 21W.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tammy is expected to move E-SE
tonight, while brushing the far NE offshore waters, then turn SE
and weaken to a non-tropical low through Tue. High seas between
Tammy and the Bahamas will slowly subside through Mon. The low
pressure is expected to move NW and parallel to the Bahamas Sun
through Mon, accompanied by strong winds and very active weather.
A strong cold front will enter the NW waters Wed morning.

$$
Ramos/Delgado
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