[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Tammy: Tropical Storm Tammy is centered near 32.5N
61.4W at 27/2100 UTC or 170 nm E of Bermuda, moving NW at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 25 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is from 32N to 35N between 57W and
61W. A turn to the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn
to the east over the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
Tammy will begin to move away from Bermuda Saturday morning.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tammy
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Western Atlantic Rough Seas: High pressure across the middle
Atlantic coastal states is combining with a low level trough
than extends from S of Tammy to the NE Caribbean to produce a
large area of fresh to locally strong winds and very high seas
between Tammy and the Bahamas. A large area of 12 ft to 15 ft
seas is just northeast of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands. These associated high seas between Tammy and the Bahamas
will slowly begin to subside Sat through Sun. Mariners should
either avoid this region or use extreme caution in this area,
depending on your vessel type and cargo. Hazardous surf and rip
currents are also anticipated along the coast of central Florida,
the Bahamas, Greater Antilles and the northern Leeward Islands.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues to 07N35W to 05N53W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 15N
bewteen 25W and 51W.

The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough extends from Central
America along the coast of Nicaragua at 11N84W to 12N74W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of
13N between Colombia and Nicaragua.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A set of three 1025 mb high pressure centers over the Carolinas
extend a ridge west-southwest to the central Gulf of Mexico. E
winds are moderate to fresh with seas 5-7 ft over the central and
eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas
elsewhere. No deep convection is occuring over the Gulf this
afternoon.

For the forecast, high pressure centered across the middle
Atlantic coastal states will continue to support fresh to strong
winds strong in the southeast and south central Gulf through early
Sun. Mainly gentle NE winds are expected by Mon as the pressure
gradient weakens and high pressure settles over the region. The
next cold front is forecast to reach the NW Gulf on Mon. This
front will bring gale force winds and quickly building seas over
the western Gulf beginning Mon evening. The front will move SE
through the entire basin by Wed afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the SE United States along with lower
pressure with the eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough is
forcing fresh to strong NE winds over the NW Caribbean as well
as the Windward Passage this afternoon. Elsewhere, winds are
gentle to moderate. Seas are 6-8 ft in the NW Caribbean and the
Windward Passage due to wind waves, as well as 6-8 ft in the
Mona and Anegada Passages due to NNE swell. Seas elsewhere over
the Caribbean are 3-5 ft. A sharp upper-level trough extends
over the Greater Antilles and is inducing a surface trough in
the eastern Caribbean from 10N-19N along 66W. While winds are
generally weak with this trough, scattered moderate convection
is occurring from 10N-20N between 60W-71W.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the middle
Atlantic U.S. coast is combining with elongated low pressure
extending from the W central Atlantic across the NE Caribbean
will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the NW and north-
central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage through Sun.
Gentle winds are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on Tropical Storm Tammy east of Bermuda, and rough
seas across the SW North Atlantic.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
subtropical ridge along 30N.  The pressure gradient between the
ridge and the ITCZ to the south is forcing generally moderate to
fresh NE to E tradewinds over most of the Atlantic east of 60W.
A trough and a dissipating stationary front extends from near
the northern Leeward Island to just southeast of Tammy.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the
trough/front axis.  Near the trough/front axis, the winds are
gentle or weaker. However, large N to NE swell are occurring
west of 55W, outside of the strong NE winds described in the
Special Features.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tammy has redeveloped into a Tropical
Storm near 32.2W 61.1W at 1500 UTC, moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated
central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt
gusting to 65 kt. High pressure across the middle Atlantic
coastal states is combining with a low level trough than extends
from S of Tammy to the NE Caribbean to produce a large area of
fresh to locally strong winds and very high seas between Tammy
and the Bahamas. These associated high seas between Tammy and
the Bahamas will slowly begin to subside Sat through Sun. Tammy
is expected to meander and remain N of the area waters through
Sat, then move eastward and brush the far NE waters Sat night,
then gradually weaken E of 55W early next week. Elongated low
pressure will develop across the SE Bahamas Sun and gradually
drift W through Tue.

$$
Ramos
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