[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Tammy: Tammy is centered near 32.2N 61.1W at
27/1500 UTC or 190 nm E of Bermuda, moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 28 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 180 NM in the NE semi-circle
and 60 NM in the SW semi-circle. A turn to the north is expected
tonight followed by a turn to the east over the next couple of
days.  On the forecast track, Tammy will begin to move away from
Bermuda Saturday morning. Little change in strength is expected
during the next day or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tammy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Western Atlantic Rough Seas: High pressure across the middle
Atlantic coastal states is combining with a low level trough
than extends from S of Tammy to the NE Caribbean to produce a
large area of fresh to locally strong winds and very high seas
between Tammy and the Bahamas. A 1200 UTC Sentinel 6A altimeter
pass observed a large area of 12 ft or greater seas just
northeast of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These
associated high seas between Tammy and the Bahamas will slowly
begin to subside Sat through Sun. Mariners should either avoid
this region or use extreme caution in this area, depending on
your vessel type and cargo. Hazardous surf and rip currents are
also anticipated along the coast of central Florida, the
Bahamas, Greater Antilles and the northern Leeward Islands.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues to 11N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 11N20W to 05N53W along the coast of French Guiana.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
from 04N-12N bewteen 25W-50W.

The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough extends from Central
America along the coast of Nicaragua at 11N84W to 12N77W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
10N-14N between 76W-82W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong 10127 mb high pressure is centered over the Carolinas
with a ridge extending west-southwest just north of the Gulf of
Mexico. E winds are moderate to fresh with seas 5-7 ft over the
central and eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft
seas elsewhere. No deep convection is occuring over the Gulf
this afternoon.

For the forecast, high pressure centered across the middle
Atlantic coastal states will continue to support moderate to
fresh winds, strong in the eastern Gulf through early Sun.
Mainly gentle NE winds are expected by Mon as the pressure
gradient weakens and high pressure settles over the region. The
next cold front is forecast to reach the NW Gulf on Mon. This
front will bring gale force winds and quickly building seas over
the western Gulf beginning on Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the SE United States along with lower
pressure with the eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough is
forcing fresh to strong NE winds over the NW Caribbean as well
as the Windward Passage this afternoon. Elsewhere, winds are
gentle to moderate. Seas are 6-8 ft in the NW Caribbean and the
Windward Passage due to wind waves, as well as 6-8 ft in the
Mona and Anegada Passages due to NNE swell. Seas elsewhere over
the Caribbean are 3-5 ft. A sharp upper-level trough extends
over the Greater Antilles and is inducing a surface trough in
the eastern Caribbean from 10N-19N along 66W. While winds are
generally weak with this trough, scattered moderate convection
is occurring from 10N-20N between 60W-71W.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the middle
Atlantic U.S. coast is combining with elongated low pressure
extending from the W central Atlantic across the NE Caribbean
will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the NW and north-
central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage through Sun.
Gentle winds are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on Tropical Storm Tammy east of Bermuda, and rough
seas across the SW North Atlantic.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
subtropical ridge along 30N.  The pressure gradient between the
ridge and the ITCZ to the south is forcing generally moderate to
fresh NE to E tradewinds over most of the Atlantic east of 60W.
A trough and a dissipating stationary front extends from near
the northern Leeward Island to just southeast of Tammy.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the
trough/front axis.  Near the trough/front axis, the winds are
gentle or weaker. However, large N to NE swell are occurring
west of 55W, outside of the strong NE winds described in the
Special Features.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tammy has redeveloped into a Tropical
Storm near 32.2W 61.1W at 1500 UTC, moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated
central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt
gusting to 65 kt. High pressure across the middle Atlantic
coastal states is combining with a low level trough than extends
from S of Tammy to the NE Caribbean to produce a large area of
fresh to locally strong winds and very high seas between Tammy
and the Bahamas. These associated high seas between Tammy and
the Bahamas will slowly begin to subside Sat through Sun. Tammy
is expected to meander and remain N of the area waters through
Sat, then move eastward and brush the far NE waters Sat night,
then gradually weaken E of 55W early next week. Elongated low
pressure will develop across the SE Bahamas Sun and gradually
drift W through Tue.

$$
Landsea/Stripling
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