[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Force Wind Warning: Tammy became extratropical early
this morning. Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy is centered near 30.5N
58.4W at 26/0900 UTC or 340 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving N at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas near the
center are estimated at 32 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted
within 210 nm E semicircle and 60 nm W semicircle. Tammy is
forecast to turn NW and slow down over the next 36 hours or so.
Although Tammy is a powerful post-tropical cyclone, with hurricane
force winds, weakening is anticipated over the next few days. Despite
Tammy no longer being tropical, high winds and hazardous seas are
still present, and a Hurricane Force Wind Warning is now in
effect for portions of the area SE of Bermuda. Hurricane Force
winds are expected today, with Storm conditions tonight. Gales
will continue into Fri. Swell will continue to affect portions of
Bermuda, the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tammy
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Western Atlantic Very Rough Seas: A very tight pressure gradient
between strong high pressure of 1028 mb centered over the east
coast of North Carolina and Tammy will continue to support a
large area of strong to near-gale force NE winds and very rough
seas of 12 to 22 ft across much of the area from 22N to 31N,
between the east coast of Florida and 60W, through Friday.
Mariners should either seek to avoid this region, or use extreme
caution in this area, depending on your vessel type and cargo.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W, then continues westward to near 06N33W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 08N46W, then continues west of a
surface trough from 09N51W to 12N60W. The surface trough extends
from 07N49W to 14N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 13N east of 34W and from 10N to 16N between 42W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong high pressure of 1028 mb centered over the east coast of
North Carolina extends a broad ridge across the Gulf of Mexico
bringing dry conditions. Fresh east to southeast winds and 6 to 8
ft seas prevail across the Gulf. The strongest winds and roughest
seas are in the E and SE Gulf and Straits of Florida, with fresh
to strong winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered north of the area
will support moderate to fresh winds, locally strong in the E
Gulf, through the remainder of the week. Mainly gentle NE winds
are expected this weekend as the pressure gradient weakens and
high pressure settles over the region. A cold front may move off
the Texas coast for the start of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft combined with a weak surface trough is leading
scattered moderate convection across the central and eastern
Caribbean Sea from 14N to 19N between 65W and 80W, including
portions southern Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.Scattered moderate
to strong convection is along the N coast of NW Venezuela and NE
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the SW
Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Strong high pressure over the east coast of North Carolina is
leading to a very strong fetch of NE winds and rough seas over
the Atlantic, to the north of the Caribbean Sea. To an extent,
these conditions are affecting the northern Caribbean, north of
15.5N and west of 67W, where fresh to locally strong NE winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail, including in the Mona and Windward
Passages, as well as south of Cuba and across the NW Caribbean.
To the south of 16N, gentle or lighter trades and 1 to 3 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail
in the NW and north-central Caribbean through the week. Gentle
winds will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a
Hurricane Force Wind Warning where now post-tropical cyclone Tammy
is impacting the area as well as associated rough seas that extend
well SW of Tammy and are impacting a large portion of the western
Atlantic, including waters offshore and E of the Bahamas.

Aside from the impacts depicted in the Special Features section,
to the E of 50W, high pressure of 1024 mb centered south of the
Azores near 32N29W is dominant. Mainly moderate winds prevail
across the basin between 25W and 50W with seas 5 to 7 ft. Fresh NE
winds are occurring offshore Africa between the Cabo Verde and
Canary Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, despite Tammy no longer being
tropical, high winds and hazardous seas are still present, and a
Hurricane Force Wind Warning is now in effect for portions of the
area SE of Bermuda. Hurricane Force winds are expected today, with
Storm conditions tonight. Gales will continue into Fri. The
gradient between Tammy and high pressure building NW of the area
will continue to support strong to near gale-fore NE winds and
very rough seas well W of Tammy across much of the area through
the week.

$$
KONARIK
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