[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Tammy: Hurricane Tammy is centered near 21.4N 64.0W at
23/0900 UTC or 200 nm NNW of Anguilla, moving N at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Hurricane-force winds extend out up
to 20 nm of the center in the N semicircle, with tropical storm-
force winds reaching up to 110 nm from the center in the E
semicircle. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend out 180 nm from the
center, especially in the N semicircle, where seas reach as high
as 25 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted within 180 nm of
the center, especially in the eastern semicircle.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Tammy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

SW Caribbean Low Pressure (Invest-AL95): A 1006 mb low pressure
centered near 12N83W is producing numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection within 210 nm of the center, especially in the
NW semicircle. Fresh to strong winds are also occurring within
about 90 nm of the center, especially to the east. The showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, and
environmental conditions appear to be favorable for development. A
short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves
inland over Nicaragua by early Tue. Regardless of development,
this system could produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next couple of days. There is a medium chance
of tropical formation within the next 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Senegal-Guinea-
Bissau border to 08N32W. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to 05N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along both of these
features from 05N to 16N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1018 mb centered near 26N89W is dominating the
basin this morning. A weak cold front from the Florida Big Bend
to the mouth of the Mississippi River is not producing any
convection. Winds are light to gentle and anticyclonic in the
central and eastern basin, with moderate to locally fresh winds
in the western basin. Seas are less than 2 ft in the central and
eastern Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft in the west.

For the forecast, the weak cold front in the far NE Gulf of
Mexico will slide E and dissipate today. High pressure will build
southward in its wake. This will lead to increasing winds early
this week, with fresh to locally strong E winds and building seas
Mon night through Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on low
pressure in the far SW Caribbean that has the potential to become
a tropical depression within the next 48 hours.

A plume of moisture and low-level convergence associated with the
outer impacts of Hurricane Tammy, centered a couple hundred nm N
of the northern-most Leeward Islands, is inducing scattered
moderate convection N of 16N and E of 63W. An area of diffluent
flow aloft is leading to scattered moderate convection in the NW
basin between Jamaica and 86W. Elsewhere, dry conditions generally
prevail. Moderate to locally fresh winds are present in the NW
basin, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 2
to 4 ft.

For the forecast, Hurricane Tammy will continue to move northward
farther away from the area today. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to show signs of organization in association with a low
pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for development,
and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system
moves inland over Nicaragua by early Tuesday. Regardless of
development, this system could produce heavy rains over portions
of Central America during the next couple of days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane
Tammy, centered about 200 nm N of Anguilla.

A cold front has stalled from 31N61W to central Cuba. Scattered
moderate convection is noted W of this boundary, N of 28N and E of
65W. Winds behind the front are generally moderate and N. To the E
of this boundary and Hurricane Tammy, and N of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough, there's a broad area of mainly moderate trades.
A 1024 mb high pressure centered near 33N38W is dominating much of
the eastern Atlantic, and gentle NE winds are prevalent to the E
of 30W. A surface trough S of 16N along 56W is producing scattered
moderate convection within 150 nm both sides of its axis.

Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the basin, with lesser seas in the
vicinity of and to the west of the Bahamas. An area of northerly
swell is leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft E of 30W and N of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Tammy will move to 22.2N
63.7W this afternoon, 23.2N 62.9W Tue morning, and 24.1N 61.7W Tue
afternoon. Hurricane Tammy will 25.1N 60.5W Wed morning, 26.5N
59.3W Wed afternoon, and 28.0N 58.7W Thu morning. Tammy will
become extratropical SE of Bermuda early Fri. Farther W, a
stationary front from near 31N61W to central Cuba will remain in
place this week and as in interacts with Hurricane Tammy, the
gradient between it and high pressure building in from the United
States will increase. This will lead to the development of a broad
area of strong NE winds and rough seas across much of the area
west of the boundary starting tonight and continuing through the
week.

$$
KONARIK
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