[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0605 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Tammy, at 21/0600 UTC, is near 14.9N
60.3W. This position also is about 43 nm/80 km to the ENE of
Martinique, and about 105 nm/195 km to the SE of Guadeloupe.
Tammy is moving WNW, or 300 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 991 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85 knots. The radius of
hurricane-force winds is: within 20 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0
nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The radius tropical-storm force winds
is: within 110 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 110
nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant; and within 80 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or greater are:
within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 240 nm of
the center in the SE quadrant; within 240 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant; and within 270 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 24 feet. Precipitation:
numerous strong is within 200 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 300 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.

Please, consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather
office. Read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Tammy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS...

The METEO-FRANCE forecasts consist of gale-force winds
for the marine areas IRVING and MADEIRA. Please, refer to the
following website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ starts at the
coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, and it continues
to 06N24W 07N33W. The ITCZ is broken up by a 13N35W 09N40W
surface trough. The ITCZ continues from 08N41W to 05N46W,
and 05N52W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
within 240 nm to the north of the second part of the ITCZ
between 41W and 49W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 240 nm to the north of the rest of the
surface trough and the ITCZ. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 03N to 14N from the surface trough
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along 22N93W 17N92W, in the SW corner of
the area. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on
either side of the surface trough. A surface ridge extends from
a 24N96W 1014 mb high pressure center into the Straits of
Florida. A stationary front extends from Georgia to central
Texas. Slight seas, and moderate or slower wind speeds, span the
area.

High pressure from the northern Gulf into Georgia will shift
SW through Sat, allowing a cold front to move into the
NE Gulf, then slowly dissipate as it moves across the eastern
Gulf into Sat night. Another cold front will follow, moving
across the eastern Gulf Sun night through Mon, before stalling
southeast of the region by Mon night into early Tue. Looking
ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will
support moderate to fresh E winds and building seas Sun night
through mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough passes through 25N77W in the Bahamas,
through Cuba near 22N78W, into the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea near 12N82W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere in the area that is from 70W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is between 63W and Haiti.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 70W eastward,
away from Hurricane Tammy.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from 74W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
200 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 81W
and 86W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 21/0000 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN,
are: 1.51 in Merida in Mexico; 0.41 in Bermuda; and 0.16
in Guadeloupe.

Moderate to fresh winds are within 380 nm to the west of
Hurricane Tammy, from 13N/14N northward. Moderate or
slower wind speeds cover the rest of the area. Moderate
seas are in the NE corner of the eastern one-third of
the Caribbean Sea. Slight seas are in the rest of the area.

Hurricane Tammy is near 14.7N 60.2W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 992 mb. Tammy will move to 15.8N 61.0W Sat morning,
17.3N 62.0W Sat evening, then reach 18.8N 63.0W Sun morning.
Hurricane Tammy will be near  20.0N 63.8W Sun evening,
21.4N 64.3W Mon morning, and 22.4N 64.0W Mon evening.
Tammy will change little in intensity as it moves to
farther N of the Leeward Islands late Tue. Elsewhere,
a trough will persist over the northwest Caribbean
into Sat. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move
into the northwest Caribbean by late Mon, then stall
and weaken from eastern Cuba to northern Belize Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N71W, to 25N77W in the Bahamas,
through Cuba near 22N78W, into the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea near 12N82W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 250 nm to 350 nm to the SSE of the
surface trough. W-to-SW strong to near gale-force winds are
from 28N northward from 76W westward. A frontal boundary
passes through the Carolinas to Georgia. Strong southerly
winds are within 480 nm to the SSE of the surface trough
from 26N northward. Strong SE winds are from 17N to 20N
between 60W and 65W. Fresh winds are from the ITCZ to the
line 30N57W 27N50W between 30W and 57W. Mostly fresh to
moderate winds are from 30W eastward.

A cold front passes through the coastal plains of Western
Sahara near 23N16W, to 24N38W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are
within 60 nm on either side of the cold front. Moderate to
rough seas are from the cold front northward. The rough
seas are mostly from 28N northward from 30W eastward.
Mostly fresh to some moderate winds are from the cold
front southward to the ITCZ. Moderate seas are from the
cold front northward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure
center that is near 32N46W, to the eastern part of the
Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Tammy is near 14.7N 60.2W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 992 mb. Tammy will move to 15.8N 61.0W Sat morning,
17.3N 62.0W Sat evening, then reach 18.8N 63.0W Sun morning.
Hurricane Tammy will be near  20.0N 63.8W Sun evening,
21.4N 64.3W Mon morning, and 22.4N 64.0W Mon evening.
Tammy will change little in intensity as it moves to
farther N of the Leeward Islands late Tue. Farther
west, a weak cold front will move off the northeast Florida
coast Sat morning, then weaken as it moves eastward over
the waters north of 27N, before stalling and dissipating
east of Bermuda early next week. A second front will follow,
moving off the northeast Florida coast late Sun, reach from
Bermuda to West Palm Beach, Florida by early Mon.

$$
mt
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