[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Oct 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Tammy is centered near 13.6N 55.7W at 19/1500 UTC
or 370 nm ESE of Guadeloupe, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently
around 18 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 15N and between 51W and 56W. A slower west-
northwest motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast on Friday, and this motion should continue
into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will
move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday. Gradual
strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Tammy is
forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity when it moves near
the Leeward Islands. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tammy
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 10N14W and
continues southwestward to 08.5N25W and then to 02N37W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N37W to 01N47W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 05N to 14.5N between 19W and
34W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico remains under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure center over the Carolinas,
which is providing E to SE gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the Carolinas to
the Texas coast will shift south through Sat ahead of a weak cold
front expected to move into the northeast Gulf Fri night. The
front will weaken as it moves slowly across the eastern Gulf into
Mon, then stall and dissipate from southwest Florida to the north
Texas coast by Sun night or early Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Tammy located east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Storm Tammy is centered near 13.6N 55.7W at 19/1500 UTC
moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.

The stationary front between eastern Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras
it now dissipating. However, scattered moderate convection is
depicted along the weakening front. Additionally, winds along the
front are gentle to moderate, with seas 3 to 5 ft. The eastern
end of the Eastern Pacific Monsoon Trough is producing scattered
to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection in the offshore
waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. The pressure
gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and lower pressure
in NW Colombia supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean and wave heights of 4-8 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Tammy is near 13.6N 55.7W at 11
AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. The center of Tammy will move to 14.0N 57.4W
this evening, 14.8N 59.2W Fri morning, and 16.0N 60.9W Fri evening
near Guadeloupe. Tammy is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane
near 17.5N 62.1W Sat morning, continue across the northern Leeward
Islands and reach 19.0N 62.8W Sat evening, then move north of the
region through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, a weakening
stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras will dissipate later today. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds over the south-central and southwest Caribbean will
diminish tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Tammy located east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Storm Tammy is centered near 13.6N 55.7W at 19/1500 UTC
moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.

A stationary front extends from 31N60W to eastern Cuba supporting
scattered showers in the southern Bahamas as well as Turks and
Caicos. Ahead of the front and well to the NE of Puerto Rico,
upper level diffluence supports a broad area of numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection from 17N to 25.5N between 57.5W
and 64W. The remainder subtropical Atlc is under the influence of
a ridge supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate
seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Tammy is near 13.6N
55.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Tammy will move through the Leeward
Islands through Sat, intensifying to hurricane strength by Sat
morning. Tammy will reach 19.0N 62.8W Sat evening then continue to
move north of the Leeward Islands to 20.5N 63.3W by Sun morning.
Tammy will change little in intensity as it moves to the north-
northeast across the waters east of 65W through the early part of
the week. Elsewhere, a stationary front from 31N60W to eastern
Cuba will weaken today before dissipating. High pressure will
build over the area in the wake of the front. The next frontal
system will move offshore the southeastern United States Fri
night. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are forecast north of
27N Fri night through Sat night with this system.

$$
KRV
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