[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 191207
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Tammy Special Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
800 AM AST Thu Oct 19 2023

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Tammy has found that
the system has strengthened overnight.  The plane has measured peak
700-mb flight level winds of 49 kt and several SFMR winds of 50 kt
in both the northeast and northern quadrants of the storm.
Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 50 kt. The
intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the next
few days while Tammy moves over warm SSTS and remains within an
environment of low to moderate vertical wind shear.  Additional
updates to the intensity forecast may be required later this
morning.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles beginning on Friday, where tropical storm
watches are currently in effect. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

2.  Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the northern
Windward and Leeward Islands on Friday, spreading into the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend.  This
rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1200Z 13.5N  55.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 13.9N  56.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 14.5N  58.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 15.5N  60.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 16.8N  61.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 18.4N  62.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 19.9N  63.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 23.3N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 27.2N  59.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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