[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Oct 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A 1012 mb low pressure is
located near 10N40W, about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and
western Africa. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is evident from 04N to 15N and between 35W and 47W. Fresh to
strong easterly winds are found north of the system, especially
from 12N and 20N and between 35W and 45W. Environmental conditions
are expected to remain conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the next few days
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the
central and western tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. This
disturbance has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
through the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave previously analyzed at 32W has been absorbed by
nearby Invest 94L.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N15W and continues southwestward to 04N30W and
then northwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure (AL94) near 10N40W
and to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to 10N61W. Other than
the convection associated with AL94 described in the Special
Features section above, scattered moderate convection is observed
from 01N to 07N and between 16W and 27W. A few showers are also
noted near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico remains under the influence of a 1023 mb high
pressure system over the central United States, allowing for a dry
continental airmass to dominate the basin and suppress the
development of deep convection. Fresh to locally northerly winds
and seas of 6-10 ft prevail, except for moderate or weaker winds
and wave heights of 3-6 ft in the NW Gulf. The strongest winds
and highest seas are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf waters. Fresh to
strong N winds will continue across most of the Gulf of Mexico
through tonight before gradually diminishing Tue. Seas will
gradually subside into mid week as high pressure continues to
build over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends southeastern Cuba to the Cayman Islands
and to Belize. Satellite imagery depict a few showers near the
frontal boundary, especially in the Gulf of Honduras, while a dry
airmass dominates the NW Caribbean behind the front. The remainder
of the Caribbean Sea is under a weak high pressure pattern and no
deep convection is present.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to
locally strong northerly winds are occurring behind and near the
aforementioned front. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds are evident in the south-central and
southeast Caribbean, along with seas of 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from east-central
Cuba to southern Belize. The front should remain in place through
Wed before dissipating Wed night. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas
will persist over the northwest Caribbean through Wed as high
pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low
pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic about midway
between the Windward Islands and western Africa has now a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation trough 48 hours. This system
is forecast to approach the waters E of the Leeward Islands late
Fri into Sat bringing increasing winds and seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on
Invest 94L located halfway between the Lesser Antilles and
western Africa.

A stationary front is draped across the southwest tropical
Atlantic, extending from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and
north-central Cuba. A few showers are seen near the frontal
boundary. Latest satellite-derived wind data show fresh to strong
W-NW winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Fresh to strong SW winds are evident ahead of the front to 60W and
north of 27N. Seas are 6-9 ft in the area described. Farther
east, a cold front enters the basin near 31N53W and continues
southwestward to 28N57W. No deep convection is seen near this
feature. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

A 1012 mb low pressure near 19N54W, remnants of Sean, continue to
produce disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly
within 120 nm of the center. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 5-7 ft are found north of the system. The remainder of the
basin is under the influence of a 1022 mb high pressure system
near 27N40W that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N64W
to east-central Cuba. The front will remain in place before
dissipating Wed night or Thu. Expect fresh to locally strong winds
over waters north of 25N through tonight, on both sides of the
front. Winds and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure
builds over the area in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, a
broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic about midway between the Windward Islands and western
Africa has now a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
trough 48 hours. This system is forecast to approach the northern
Leeward Islands Fri into Sat, bringing increasing winds and seas.

$$
DELGADO
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