[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. The
tropical wave is moving through the area of precipitation
that also is associated with the monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

INVEST-AL94 is a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near
09N38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 360 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm of
the center in the NE semicircle. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 690 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
The precipitation pattern is disorganized The low-level
circulation has become better defined since yesterday.
The environmental conditions are expected to continue to be
conducive for more development. It is likely still for a
tropical depression to form within a few days. This system
is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward through
the central and western sections of the tropical Atlantic
Ocean during the next several days.

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 12N16W, to 10N20W 08N30W, to the INVEST-AL94 low pressure
center, to 08N41W and 08N44W. The ITCZ continues from 08N44W,
to 08N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from the monsoon trough southward from the 31W
tropical wave, and within 250 nm to the north of the rest of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The NE-to-SW oriented cold front that was in the Gulf of
Mexico 24 hours ago, now is passing through the NW Bahamas,
to NW Cuba, to northern Guatemala. A surface ridge is passing
through the Deep South of Texas, to the coastal plains of
Mexico near 19N97W.

Rough seas are in the SW corner of the area. Mostly moderate
to some rough seas are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.
Strong to near gale-force northerly winds are from 89W
westward. Fresh to moderate winds are in the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong
N winds will continue across most of the Gulf of Mexico
through tonight before gradually diminishing Tue. Seas
will gradually subside into mid week as high pressure
continues to build over the region in the wake of a cold
front now located SE of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows
broad anticyclonic wind flow in the Caribbean Sea. The
exception is an inverted trough in the SW corner of the
area.

A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, to NW Cuba,
to northern Guatemala, and the eastern parts of the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm
to the SE of the cold front.

A short branch of a surface ridge is along 19N between 60W
and the Windward Passage.

The monsoon trough is along 11N from 74W in Colombia, beyond
SE Nicaragua, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N
southward from 71W westward. Other isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 15N northward between 70W
and 80W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 16/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN,
are: 1.51 in Merida in Mexico; 1.06 in Nassau in the Bahamas;
0.58 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.56 in Veracruz in Mexico;
0.26 in Bermuda; and 0.17 in Freeport in the Bahamas.

Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, span the area.

A cold front extends from western Cuba to northern Belize.
The front will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
by early Tue morning before stalling, and then gradually
dissipating into mid-week. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas
will persist over the northwest Caribbean through late Wed
as high pressure builds over the area. Looking ahead, there
is a high chance that a tropical depression or storm will
develop over the Atlantic by late this week, possibly
bringing winds to gale force to the waters east of the
Leeward Islands by late week, along with rough seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A first cold front passes through 31N65W, through the NW
Bahamas, beyond NW Cuba. A second front and surface trough
are about 210 nm to the east and southeast of the first cold
front from 82W northeastward. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is to the northwest of the line
31N48W 20N70W. Fresh to strong NW winds are from the first
cold front toward the northwest from 73W westward. Moderate
and fresh southerly winds are from 20N northward between
60W and 70W. Fresh winds are within 700 nm of the SEAN remnant
low pressure center in the NW quadrant. Moderate or slower winds
are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

The remnant 1012 mb low pressure center of SEAN is near
18N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 250 nm of the center in the W semicircle.
Fresh winds are within 700 nm of the SEAN remnant
low pressure center in the NW quadrant.

A surface trough is along 31N23W 30N40W 27N51W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the
surface trough. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 27N39W.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 18N northward between Africa and 50W.

Mostly moderate seas span most of the area. Some slight seas
are from the 1012 mb low pressure center remnant of SEAN
southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front reaching from SE of Bermuda near 31N64W to
western Cuba will push eastward until it stalls Tue from
E of Bermuda near 32N62W to eastern Cuba, then dissipates
through mid week. Expect fresh to locally strong winds
over waters north of 25N through tonight, on both sides
of the front. Winds and seas will diminish into mid week
as high pressure builds over the area in the wake of the
front. Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical
depression will develop over the Atlantic by the end of the
week, possibly bringing fresh to strong winds and rough
seas to the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands by
late week.

$$
mt/gr
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