[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160511
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sean is near 18.2N 49.3W at 11 PM EDT, and
is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1011 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the
center. Peak seas are 8 ft near the center. A turn toward the
west with an increase in forward speed is expected overnight and
Monday morning. Weakening is forecast, and Sean is expected to
dissipate into an open trough by Monday night or Tuesday. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the final NHC
  Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory for Sean at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W, south of
18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 04N to 13N and between 26W and 33W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau and continues westward to a 1012 mb low pres (AL94)
near 09N36W and to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to 11N61W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen on
satellite imagery from 06N to 15N and between 33W and 44W, mainly
associated with Invest 94L.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is draped across the SE Gulf of Mexico, extending
from SW Florida to NE Yucatan. A few showers and a thunderstorm or
two are present near the frontal boundary and in the Bay of
Campeche. The rest of the Gulf is under a strong ridge located
over northern Mexico and a dry continental airmass dominates the
basin behind the aforementioned front. The Gale Warning that was
in effect for the SW Gulf has been allowed to expire. However,
strong to locally near gale-force northerly winds continue to
affect the offshore waters of Veracruz in the western Bay of
Campeche. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Elsewhere behind the
cold front, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate seas
prevail. Ahead of the front, moderate to locally fresh winds and
seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from Cape Sable, FL near
25.5N81W to just NW of Cancun, Mexico near 21.5N88W. The front
will move southeast of the basin late tonight. Strong N winds
across much of the Gulf will gradually diminish Mon night into
Tue. Seas will gradually subside into mid week as high pressure
builds over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak ridging dominates the Caribbean Sea, sustaining moderate or
weaker winds and mainly slight seas. A weak pre-frontal trough
extends from western Cuba to the eastern Yucatan peninsula and a
few showers are noted in the NW Caribbean near the boundary. No
deep convection is present in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas will increase over the far
northwest Caribbean starting tonight following a cold front moving
through the Yucatan Channel. The front will stall from central
Cuba to southern Belize Mon evening, and dissipate into mid week.
Fresh NE winds and moderate wave heights will persist over the
northwest Caribbean through late Wed as high pressure builds over
the area. Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical
depression or storm will develop over the Atlantic by late this
week, possibly bringing winds to gale force to the waters east of
the Leeward Islands by late week, along with rough seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
the remnants of TD Sean.

A cold front extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and southern
Florida. Recent satellite images show a few showers ahead of the
frontal boundary, especially near the northern coast of Cuba and
the central Bahamas. Latest satellite-derived wind data captured
fresh to locally strong westerly winds behind the cold front. Seas
in these waters are 5-9 ft. Farther east, another cold front
enters the tropical Atlantic, extending from 31N61W to 26N70W,
where it transitions into a surface trough that continues
southwestward to the northern Cuban coast. Fresh to locally strong
SW winds are noted north of 26N and west of 55W to the frontal
boundary first mentioned. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft.
Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft
prevail.

A 1011 mb low pressure (Invest 94) is centered near 09N36W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 15N and between 33W
and 44W. Fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are occurring
north of the center. Although the environment may not support much
development during the next couple of days, conditions are
expected to become more conducive thereafter, and a tropical
depression is still likely to form by late this week. This system
is expected to move westward or west-northwestward across the
central and western tropical Atlantic during the next several
days. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the
next 48 hours. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Yet another cold front enters the basin near 31N37W and quickly
transitions into a surface trough that continues to 28N51W. A few
showers are noted ahead of the boundary. Fresh westerly winds are
found north of 29N and between 22W and the surface trough. Seas of
8-10 ft are evident north of 27N and between 27W and 44W. The
rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high
pressure positioned near 25N34W, supporting moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front reaching from 31N71W to
Ft. Lauderdale, FL will push southeastward until it stalls Tue
from Bermuda to central Cuba, then dissipates through mid week.
Expect fresh to locally strong winds over waters north of 25N
through Mon night, on both sides of the front. Winds and seas will
diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over the area in
the wake of the front. Looking ahead, there is a high chance that
a tropical depression will develop over the Atlantic by the end of
the week, possibly bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas
to the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands by late week.

$$
DELGADO
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