[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 15 2023...Updated Special Features Section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Sean is centered near 16.5N 44.8W at 14/2100
UTC or 1050 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 8
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are
currently 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and
north of the center from 14N to 20N between 43W and 47W. The
depression will have a northwestward motion through tonight, with
a turn back toward the west-northwest on Sunday. Weakening is
anticipated, and Sean will likely become a post-tropical remnant
low on Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sean
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94) Gale Warning: A tropical wave
has an axis along 32W from 15N southward. A low pressure is noted
along the wave axis near 09N32W with a central pressure of 1008
mb. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
07N to 13N between 32W and 35W. The convection associated with
this system has not become any better organized this afternoon.
However, environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system
moves westward or west- northwestward across the central and
western tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of
development in 48 hours. In anticipation of this system developing,
a gale warning has been issued for this system. Seas will build
to over 12 ft by Sun morning. Additional information on this
system, including the gale warning, can be found in the High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and in
the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov

Central Atlantic Large Swell: A cold front extends from 31N46W to
24N54W to 23N60W. Strong to near gale force SW winds and seas of
12 to 17 ft are currently affecting waters north of 27N between
40W and 52W. Seas of 12 ft or greater will continue to affect the
waters north of 27N between 35W and 50W through Sun before
subsiding by Sun evening.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 21W from
18N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted
within 50 nm of the trough axis from 05N to 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 09N23W to AL94 to 09N37W. There is no ITCZ present at
this time. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 16N between 23W and 29W in addition to 07N to
12N and E of 17W to the African coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico, stretching from
the western Florida Panhandle near 30N87W to near Tampico,
Mexico near 22N98W. A pre-frontal trough extends from SW Florida
near 26N81W to the southern Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the western Bay
of Campeche, S of 24N and W of 91W. Moderate to locally fresh N
winds are noted behind the front with light to gentle winds ahead
of it. Seas range 3-5 ft, according to NWS buoys, in the NW Gulf.
Seas are potentially up to 6-7 ft off the South Texas coast.
Across the rest of the basin, seas range 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Port
Charlotte, Florida to near Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then sweep
to the southeast of the area Sun night. Expect fresh winds and
rough seas following the front into Tue. Looking ahead, winds and
seas will diminish through mid week as high pressure builds over
the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging extends across the Caribbean, anchored by a 1013
mb high pressure located just north of Hispaniola. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough
and the Colombian coast near 11N76W. Otherwise, the rest of the
basin remains quiet. Moderate trade winds are noted in the Gulf of
Honduras and along the Venezuela coastline. Light to gentle trade
winds prevail elsewhere. Smooth to slight seas are noted across
the Caribbean.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas will
persist through late Sun. Winds and seas will increase over the
far northwest Caribbean starting following a weak cold front
moving through the Yucatan Channel. The front will stall from
central Cuba to Belize Mon, and dissipate into mid week. Fresh NE
winds and moderate wave heights will persist over the northwest
Caribbean through late Wed as high pressure builds over the area.
Looking ahead, there is a high chance that a tropical depression
or storm will develop over the Atlantic during the next several
days, possibly bringing winds to gale force and very rough seas to
the waters east of the Leeward Islands by late Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on T.S. Sean and the Gale
Warning for AL94.

Across the western and central Atlantic, a cold front extends from
31N46W to 23N60W to 26N69W. Fresh NW winds are noted W of the
front with strong SW winds ahead of the front, N of 26N and W of
35W. A warm front stretches from 31N76W to the end of the cold
front near 26N69W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted along this
boundary. A trough extends off the South Florida coast. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted off this coast and the northern Bahamas. A
line of thunderstorms is noted within 100 nm of the cold front in
the central Atlantic from 23N to 31N. Scattered thunderstorms are
also noted near the tail-end of the cold front and warm front
from 23N to 28N between 64W and 72W. Light to gentle winds prevail
N of the front between 54W and 69W. Moderate winds prevail south
of the front between 50W and 77W.

Across the eastern Atlantic, surface ridging extends across the
area. Light to gentle winds prevail with slight seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front extending from 23N55W
to 23N65W to 25N70W will shift east of the area overnight. Rough
seas lingering east of 60W behind the front will subside this
evening. Expect fresh to strong winds over waters north of 30N and
west of 70W into Sun associated with a second front that will
move off the northeast Florida coast overnight. A reinforcing
trough will maintain fresh NW winds off northeast Florida Mon. The
front will slow down and weaken from Bermuda to central Cuba by
early Tue, then stall and dissipate from 31N60W through eastern
Cuba by mid week.

$$
Hagen/AReinhart
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