[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 142034
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Sean Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192023
500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2023

Sean has had another deep convective burst near the center of
circulation this afternoon. The system continues to fend off dry air
with these convective burst from time to time. Latest subjective
Dvorak intensity satellite estimates are T2.0 from both TAFB and
SAB. Using these estimates and the recent burst of convection
the initial intensity for this advisory remains 30 kt.

Sean is moving northwestward or 310 degrees at about 8 kt. The
system will continue to move northwestward today and tonight around
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. On Sunday, a turn
toward the west-northwest is anticipated as Sean is forecast to
weaken into a more shallow vortex, and thus will be steered by the
low-level flow. This turn is dependent on just how quickly Sean
weakens. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous one, with no
real changes to the forecast track.

Although Sean is moving into a drier mid-level airmass, low wind
shear and warm sea surface temperatures have allowed the system to
maintain convective bursts the past day or so. Along the forecast
track, the environment is forecast to become increasingly drier and
more stable. This should cause Sean to further weaken the next
couple of days.  Global models continue to depict that Sean will
struggle to produce deep convection tonight and into Sunday. The
system is forecast to be devoid of convection and become a remnant
low in about 24 hours, and then the circulation is expected to open
up into a trough and dissipate in about 60 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 16.5N  44.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 17.0N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 17.5N  47.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0600Z 18.0N  49.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1800Z 18.4N  51.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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