[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Sean, at 14/1500 UTC, is near
16.0N 44.2W. Sean is moving toward the NW, or 305 degrees,
07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to
40 knots. The sea heights that are 12 feet or greater are: within
60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Expect strong to
near gale-force winds, and rough seas, within 18N41W to 20N42W to
19N44W to 17N45W to 15N44W to 15N42W to 18N41W. Precipitation:
isolated strong in clusters is within 180 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 440 nm
of the center in the SE semicircle.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Sean NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

Gale-Force Wind Warning and Atlantic Ocean Invest-AL94:
A tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 15N southward. A 1008 mb
low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near 09.5N. A
gale-force wind warning has been issued, to start at 15/1800 UTC,
for a forecast 1009 mb low pressure center to be near 10N35W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is from
280 nm to 550 nm of the low pressure center in the E semicircle.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the
area that is within 690 nm of the center in the NE semicircle.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 510 nm of the
center in the SW semicircle. The precipitation pattern has become
better organized and more concentrated during the last several
hours. The environmental conditions are becoming more conducive
for more development. It is likely for a tropical depression to
form within the next couple of days. The system is forecast toward
the west or northwest, through the central and western sections
of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high.

Please, refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W/21W, from 18N
southward, moving W 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation:
the convective precipitation that is to the west of the tropical
wave is mixing with the precipitation that is to the east of T.D.
Sean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 09N
from 17W eastward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N15W, to the 1008 mb INVEST-AL94 low pressure center, to
09N37W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the remainder of the areas that are from 20N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through SE Louisiana, through the NW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through NE Mexico near 25N98W.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in the satellite imagery.

A surface trough is along 31N80W in the Atlantic Ocean off the
coast of NE Florida, through Florida along 28N, into the central
Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm
to the north and northwest of the surface trough.

A second surface trough curves along 25N84W 23N90W, to the central
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: numerous
strong is within 300 nm to the west of the surface trough from 22N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within
180 nm to the north and northwest of the surface trough. Isolated
moderate to locally strong convective precipitation also is from
25N to 27N between the NW Bahamas and 84W in the SE Gulf of
Mexico.

Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, span the area.

Winds and seas will increase following a cold front currently
moving through the northwest Gulf. The front will reach from near
Port Charlotte, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by early Sun, then
sweep to the southeast of the area Sun night. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over
the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 20N66W, about 85 nm to the
north of Puerto Rico. A surface ridge extends from the 1014 mb
high pressure center toward NW Cuba.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in the water
vapor imagery, from 15N southward from 80W eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 11N74W, through western Panama and
beyond southern Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N southward
between 74W and 80W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere to the south
of the line that runs from NE Nicaragua to the coast of Colombia
along 12N.

Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, span the area.

Moderate to fresh SE winds off Honduras between high pressure
over Cuba and lower pressure off Belize will diminish this morning
as the high pressure weakens. This pattern will leave mostly
gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across the Caribbean
through late Sun. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the
Yucatan Channel Sun night, start to slow down and weaken from
central Cuba to northern Belize Mon, then stall dissipate from
eastern Cuba to central Honduras through mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about:
T.D. Sean, and a Gale-Force Wind Warning that is associated with
the INVEST-AL94, for 15/1800 UTC.

A cold front passes through 31N51W to 24N60W and 26N70W. The front
continues as a warm front, from 26N70W, beyond 31N78W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N
northward from 40W westward. Gale-force winds, and rough seas,
have been associated with this feature during the last 24 hours or
so, from 23N northward between 50W and 70W. Continue to expect
strong to near gale-force winds from 23N northward between 43W and
60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 19N to 23N between
43W and 60W. Mostly fresh to some strong southerly winds are from
20N northward between 30W and 43W. Moderate or slower wind speeds
are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, away from T.D. Sean,
and the INVEST-AL94 system, and the cold front/warm front
boundary. Moderate to rough seas are from the cold front northward
between 50W and 70W. Slight seas are within 480 nm of the 1018 mb
high pressure center, that is near 29N28W, in the SE semicircle.
Mostly moderate, and some slight, seas are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center that
is near 29N28W, through 25N42W, to a 1014 mb high pressure center
that is about 85 nm to the north of Puerto Rico near 20N66W,
toward NW Cuba.

A cold front extends from 24N55W to 26N70W, then it is warm front
to 31N78W. Strong winds behind this front have been diminishing
east of 60W, but rough seas will linger through late today as the
front weakens and shifts east off the area. Expect fresh to strong
winds over waters north of 30N tonight and Sun associated with a
second front that will move off the northeast Florida coast
overnight. A reinforcing trough will maintain fresh to strong NW
winds off northeast Florida Mon. The front will slow down and
weaken from Bermuda to central Cuba by early Tue, then stall from
31N60W through eastern Cuba by mid week.

$$
mt/ec
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