[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Sean is centered near 14.9N 42.5W at 13/2100 UTC
or 1070 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently
around 14 ft. Sean is a sheared tropical storm and scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is evident within 75 nm in
the E semicircle. Sean will take a turn toward the northwest is
expected later this evening, and this motion should continue for
the next day or so. Sean is then expected to turn back toward the
west-northwest by Sunday. Additional weakening is anticipated.
Sean will likely become a post-tropical remnant low over the
weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sean
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale force 990 mb low pressure is
centered just N of the area near 32N62W. A cold front extends SW
from the low to 29N77W then continuing as a stationary front to
1008 mb low pressure near Jacksonville, Florida at 31N82W. A warm
front extends from 27N51W to 31N56W to the low. Scattered
moderate convection is evident within 250 nm ENE of the front.
Gale force winds are occurring N of 28N ahead of the front as
confirmed by an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass which showed
30-40 kt winds. Peak seas are 12-16 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 23N to 29N between 63W and 79W
continuing across S Florida, and from 24N to 29N between 46W and
46W. The gale force winds will continue ahead of the front as it
moves SE across the northern Atlantic waters through the weekend.
Continued scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as rough
seas are expected with this frontal system. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 16N between 15W and 20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 29W, SW of
the Cabo Verde Islands, from 15N southward and moving W at around
10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure area (AL94) is along the wave near
09N29W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident
within 300 nm in the NW semicircle of the low. Winds are
currently 20 kt with the low with seas of 5-6 ft. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
by the end of the weekend while the disturbance begins to move
westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional
development is expected after that, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early to middle portion of next week as
the system moves steadily westward across the central and western
tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of development
within the next 48 hours and a high chance within the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 1010 mb
low pressure (AL94) near 09N29W to 06N35W. No ITCZ is evident to
the W of the monsoon trough due to Tropical Storm Sean off to the
NW-N. In addition to the convection associated with AL94 as
described above, scattered moderate isolated strong is evident
from 02N to 15N between 20W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A pair of 1008 mb lows are located over the northern Florida
Panhandle, one near Jacksonville and the other near Apalachicola.
A trough, which is the remnants of an old front, extends from
across Lake Okeechobee to the central Gulf near 24N89W. Scattered
thunderstorms are S of the trough to 24N to the E of 88W across
portions of S Florida. Another trough extends across the western
Gulf from 27N91W to 21N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 25N to 28N between 88W and 92W. Strong thunderstorms are
noted into the southern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds
are noted in the basin with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, gentle breezes and slight seas will persist
through the overnight hours across the basin, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the southeast Gulf along a
trough. Winds and seas will increase following a cold front
expected to enter the northwest Gulf early Sat, reach from near
Port Charlotte, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by early Sun, then
sweep to the southeast of the area Sun night. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will diminish into mid week as high pressure builds over
the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak ridge extends from N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to
across central Cuba. A trough extends across the Gulf of Honduras
from a 1006 mb low near 04N96W to 16N83W. Scattered thunderstorms
are noted in the Gulf and along the northern coast of Honduras.
Thunderstorms are also noted in the northern Colombian coast.
Otherwise, no significant convection is noted over the rest of the
basin. Mainly moderate E-SE winds are found across the Caribbean
basin E of 83W, with moderate to fresh SE-S winds W of 83W
including through the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 2-4 ft in the
eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere, highest offshore northern
Colombia and in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds off Honduras between
high pressure over Cuba and lower pressure off Belize will
diminish overnight as the high pressure weakens. This pattern will
leave mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across
the Caribbean through late Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front
will move into the Yucatan Channel Sun night, start to slow down
and weaken from central Cuba to northern Belize Mon, then stall
dissipate from eastern Cuba to central Honduras through mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning over the western Atlantic and on Tropical Storm Sean.
Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on AL94.

A ridge extends along 20N/21N to the S of the gale force cold
frontal system. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are under the
influence of this ridge across the waters S of 23N/24N away from
Sean and AL94, along with seas of 3-6 ft, higher closer to Sean
and the gale-force low. A trough stretches across the eastern
Atlantic from 31N32W to 25N48W. Moderate to fresh winds are
ahead of the trough, as well as N of 28N between 26W and 42W.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft N of
27N between 29W and 38W, otherwise seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, see the Special Features section above.
Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong winds over waters north of
28N late Sat and Sun associated with a second front that will move
off the northeast Florida coast Sat night. A reinforcing trough
will maintain fresh to strong NW winds off northeast Florida Mon.
The front will slow down and weaken from Bermuda to central Cuba
by early Tue, then stall from 31N60W through eastern Cuba by mid
week.

$$
AReinhart
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