[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...A 1010 mb low pres is currently
centered over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 19N94W.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for some
additional development while the low moves slowly northward
before the low merges with a frontal system over the western Gulf
of Mexico by midweek. Despite if it develops as a tropical system
or not, strong to near-gale force winds with frequent gusts to
gale-force are expected with the low across the northern Gulf N
of 28N on Wed. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
product at www.hurricanes.gov/marine for details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A low-latitude tropical wave
located along 28N continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms from 04N to 12N between 25W and 34W. A low pres
of 1010 mb is near 08N28W. The convective activity has become a
bit more concentrated this afternoon, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system during
the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form in
the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This
disturbance has a High chance of development within the next 48
hours.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 80W, from 18N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm either side of the
wave axis from 15N to 20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 11N16W and
continues to 09N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N39W to 09N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 45W and
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
expected in the northern Gulf on Wed.

A stationary front extends from the SW Florida coast near 25N81W
to 22N20W to 19N93W. The Special Feature Low in the SW Gulf is
enhancing winds and convection across the Bay of Campeche. Seas to
9 ft prevail S of 19N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere, with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northward Tue
into Wed. The low pres is expected to strengthen along the front
Tue night over the NW Gulf, and move eastward across the N central
and NE Gulf Wed through Wed evening, then inland across N Florida
Wed night. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms and strong
to gale force winds will accompany this low pressure system and
frontal boundary across the northern Gulf on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Moderate to fresh E to SE trades prevail across the basin east of
the tropical wave, where seas are of 4-7 ft. West of the tropical
wave, trades are light to gentle with seas of 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure across the central
Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 22N to the SE Bahamas, and
will shift slightly W-NW across the remainder of the Bahamas
through Thu. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail across
the eastern and central Caribbean into Tue night, then become
easterly through Thu. Strong winds will pulse near the coast of NW
Venezuela and N Colombia Tue evening. Fresh SE to S winds will
develop across the NW Caribbean early Wed and become strong Wed
evening through Thu as low pressure moves eastward across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds in the Gulf of Honduras will remain
fresh into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections
above.

A stationary front extends from 31N72W to 26N80W. Moderate N to
NE winds are noted north of the front, where seas are 3 to 6 ft in
NE to E swell. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm SE of
the front. A 1015 mb high pressure centered near 23N62W. To the E,
a surface trough extends from 23N48W to 31N47W. Farther east, a
weakening stationary front extends from 31N27W to 22N42W.

Long period northerly swell continues across much of the Atlantic
waters, with wave heights of 8-12 ft north of 10N between 26W and
61W. Gentle NE to E trades prevail across the tropics S of 10N
and W of 30W, where seas are 5-8 ft in merging N and SE swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front over the W
Atlantic will gradually dissipate through mid-week, as high
pressure builds W across the remainder of the Bahamas. Large NE
swell will continue across the waters east of 65W through Tue
before gradually subsiding. Low pressure along a front is expected
to move eastward across NE Florida Wed night, then continue
eastward, bringing strong to gale force winds east of northern and
central Florida Thu, move E of 70W Thu night, and across the NE
waters Fri. Mariners traversing the waters north of 26N should be
prepared for rough sea conditions late this week with these
strong to gale-force winds, associated with the low pressure.

$$
ERA
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