[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (INVEST-AL92):

A tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 16N southward, moving
westward 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center
is along the tropical wave near 08N. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is within 270 nm of the center in the W
semicircle. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive
for more development of this system during the next several
days. It is likely for a tropical depression to form around
midweek, while the system is forecast to move west-northwestward
or northwestward in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The
chance for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours is medium.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from Jamaica
southward. The wave is moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 30 nm to
60 nm on either side of the line that curves from 18N76W to
17N80W to 17N81W, to 12N between 80W and 81W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere between 72W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N15W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is the
subject of the INVEST-AL92, to 09N38W. The ITCZ continues along
08N/09N, from 38W to 55W. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is
along 18N40W to 14N43W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is
from 18N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 19N94W, in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough
extends from the 1009 mb low pressure center toward the Deep
South of Texas/NE Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 23N in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the rest of
the area that is between 87W in the NW Caribbean Sea and the
coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, and 100W in
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The environmental
conditions appear to be marginally favorable for some more
development. The system is forecast to move slowly northward,
before the low pressure center merges with a western Gulf of
Mexico frontal system by midweek.

A stationary front is along 31N71W in the Atlantic Ocean,
between the NW Bahamas and SE Florida, to the Straits of
Florida, to the south central Gulf of Mexico, toward the 1009 mb
low pressure center. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, cover much of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Broad surface high pressure center covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 28N northward from the border of Texas and Louisiana
eastward.

Rough seas are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate
seas are elsewhere in the southern half of the area. Slight seas
are in the northern half of the area. Fresh and moderate winds
have been from 26N southward during the last 12 hours or so.
Some strong winds have been within 210 nm of the 1009 mb low
pressure center in the N semicircle. Moderate or slower winds
are elsewhere.

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to the Bay of
Campeche. Weak low pressure has formed near 19N94W along the
stationary front. The front will lift northward Tue into Wed.
The low pres is expected to strengthen along the front Tue night
over the NW Gulf, and move eastward across the N central and NE
Gulf Wed through Wed evening, then inland across N Florida Wed
night. Scattered strong thunderstorms and strong to near gale
force winds will accompany this low pressure system across the
northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from Jamaica southward. The
wave is moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is within 30 nm to 60 nm on
either side of the line that curves from 18N76W to 17N80W to
17N81W, to 12N between 80W and 81W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere between 72W and 85W.

Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the eastern one-third Of the
area, and from 14N northward between the Windward Passage and
80W around the 77W/78W tropical wave. Moderate or slower winds
are elsewhere. Moderate seas are nearly everywhere from 80W
eastward, accept for the waters that are about 210 nm to the
north of Panama. Slight seas are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea, including in the waters that are about 210 nm to
the north of Panama.

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of northern
Colombia, to 10N along 75W/76W, westward beyond Costa Rica, and
into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 12N southward from the 77W/78W tropical
wave westward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in the water
vapor imagery, from Haiti eastward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 09/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are: 1.01 in
Freeport in the Bahamas; 0.33 in Kingston in Jamaica; 0.17 in
Guadeloupe; and 0.08 in Bermuda.

Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a ridge
westward along 22N to the SE Bahamas, and will shift slightly W-
NW across the remainder of the Bahamas through Thu. Moderate to
locally fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the eastern and
central Caribbean into Tue night, then become easterly through
Thu. Strong winds will pulse near the coast of NW Venezuela and
N Colombia Tue evening. Fresh SE to S winds will develop across
the NW Caribbean early Wed and become strong Wed evening through
Thu as low pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf of
Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the
INVEST-AL92 low pressure center and tropical wave.

A stationary front is along 31N71W in the Atlantic Ocean,
between the NW Bahamas and SE Florida, to the Straits of
Florida, to the south central Gulf of Mexico, toward the SW Gulf
of Mexico 1009 mb low pressure center. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N northward
between 50W and 70W, and from the Bahamas northward from 70W
westward.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 23N62W.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N54W, to 28N60W,
to 24N70W, to NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is to the northwest of the line
30N36W 25N60W 20N70W.

A surface trough is along 31N47W 21N49W. The surface trough
is at the southern end of a stationary front that is to the
north of the area. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the east and southeast
of the surface trough, and from 18N to 23N between 49W and 57W.

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N27W 22N42W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and
locally strong, is from 19N northward between 20W and 44W.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds are from the western
Atlantic Ocean stationary front northward from 70W westward.
Fresh easterly winds are from 01N southward between 40W and
50W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 15N northward between 30W
and 60W. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are from 15N
northward from 30W eastward. Moderate or lower seas are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a ridge
westward along 22N to the SE Bahamas. A weak stationary front
extending from 31N71W to near Key Largo, Florida, will gradually
dissipate through mid-week, as high pressure builds W across the
remainder of the Bahamas. Large NE swell will continue across
the waters east of 65W through Tue before gradually subsiding.
Low pressure along a front is expected to move eastward across
NE Florida Wed night, then continue eastward, bringing strong to
near gale force winds east of northern and central Florida Thu,
move E of 70W Thu night, and across the NE waters Fri and Fri
night. Mariners who are traversing the waters north of 27N
should stay tuned to future updates for possible gale warnings
with this low pres over the Atlantic.

$$
mt/ah
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