[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave is along
23.8W, south of 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 12.5N between 22W and 31W. This system
has become better organized since yesterday, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this
system during the next several days.A tropical depression is
likely to form around midweek while it moves west-northwestward
or northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This
disturbance has a MEDIUM chance of development within the next
48 hours.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75.5W, from 18N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 12N to 19N between 72W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 11N15W and
continues to 08.5N46.5W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N46.5W to
10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
depicted south of the trough from 05N to 11N between the west
coast of Africa and 16W. This convection may be associated with
the next tropical wave that is emerging from west Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends 25.5N82W to 23N85W to 20N93W. Fresh
to strong winds and seas are 8-11 ft from 19N to 25N west of
91W. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche
near 19N92W enhancing scattered showers in the area. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate NE winds are analyzed north of the stationary
front with 4-7 ft seas. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
are noted in the north Gulf, Straits of Florida, and the Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the Florida
Everglades to the Central Bay of Campeche tonight, and will
stall from the Florida Straits to the NW coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula Mon, then retreat northward as a warm front Tue night
through Wed. Strong NW winds behind the front offshore Veracruz,
Mexico, will diminish Mon. Low pressure is expected to develop
across the NW Gulf Tue night and move E across the N central and
NE Gulf Wed, then inland across N Florida Wed night. Scattered
thunderstorms and strong winds may accompany this low pressure
system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Moderate to fresh trades are east of the tropical wave with seas
of 4-7 ft. West of the tropical wave, trades are light to gentle
with seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure across the central Atlantic
extends a ridge westward along 22N to the SE Bahamas tonight,
and will shift slightly W-NW across the remainder of the Bahamas
through Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will
prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean into Tue night,
then become easterly through Thu. Fresh S winds will develop
across the NW Caribbean Wed through Thu as low pressure moves
eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections
above.

A stationary front extends from 31N72W to 26N80W. A surface
trough is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 24N to 29N between 62W and 71W. Another weak
surface trough is from 25N50W to 31N53W. Farther east, a
weakening stationary front extends from 31N24W to 23N39W.
Scattered moderate convection in the eastern Atlantic is
depicted from 26N to 31N between 15W and 19W in association with
another surface trough.

Long period northerly swell with significant wave heights of 8-
12 ft is north of 16N between 19W and 63W. Seas are 4-8 ft north
of 20N and west of 60W in the W Atlantic. Seas are 4-9 ft across
the tropical Atlantic south of 16N.

For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure across the central
Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 22N to the SE Bahamas
tonight. A weakening cold front has stalled tonight from 31N72W
to south Florida, and will drift SE eastward of the Bahamas
through Mon,  then gradually dissipate through mid-week, as high
pressure builds W across the Bahamas. Large NE swell will
continue across the northern waters through Tue before gradually
subsiding. Low pressure is expected to move eastward across NE
Florida Wed night, then across the far NW waters through Thu
night.

$$
KRV
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net