[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081819
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave is along 21W,
south of 14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. 1010 mb low pressure is near
08N21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N between
19W and 30W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by midweek while it moves westward to west-
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This
disturbance has a MEDIUM chance of development within the next 48
hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The previously analyzed central Atlantic tropical wave has
dissipated near 50W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 73W, from 18N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is ahead of the wave from 08N to 12N between 76W and
79W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the vicinity of
the tropical wave across the central Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 10N15W and
continues to 1010 mb low pressure near 08N21W then to 08N43W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N43W to 08N60W. Convection is described in
the SPECIAL FEATURES section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a strong early season cold front extends from
Everglades National Park in Florida to near Heroica Veracruz,
Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds are within 90 nm of the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 8-10 ft from
19N to 25N west of 92W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are
analyzed north of the cold front with 4-7 ft seas. Around 1500
UTC, a 1012 mb low pressure formed in the Bay of Campeche ahead of
the cold front near 20N93W. Scattered showers and tstorms are in
the vicinity of this low pressure. Light to gentle winds and
slight seas are noted in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE then stall from the
Florida Straits to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by late
Mon. High pressure and fresh to strong winds will follow the front
into this evening, with strong winds continuing offshore
Veracruz, Mexico, through early Mon. The front will then drift
northward Tue through Wed as southerly return flow gradually
develops across most of the basin. Low pressure is expected to
develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and move E across the N
central and NE Gulf Wed, then inland across N Florida Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the Gulf of Honduras and far
NW Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades are east of the
tropical wave with seas of 4-6 ft. West of the tropical wave,
trades are light to gentle with seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will
prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue.
Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop across the NW Caribbean
Wed and Wed night as the Atlantic ridge shifts W and builds
through the Bahamas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES and SPECIAL FEATURES sections above.

A strong early season cold front extends across the NW Forecast
Waters from 31N73W across the northern Bahamas to Fort
Lauderdale, Florida. A weak surface trough is over the southeast
Bahamas. Another weak surface trough is from 26N50W to 31N53W.
1018 mb high pressure is near 21N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is just north of the high in a narrow convergence zone,
from 23N to 25N between 50W and 56W. Farther east, a stationary
front extends from 31N26W to 23N40W. 1016 mb high pressure is
centered near 23N28W. Even farther east, 1012 mb low pressure is
centered near 24N18W, a couple hundred nautical miles southwest
of the Canary Islands. Scattered moderate convection in the
eastern Atlantic is from 23N to 31N between 20W and 26W.

Long period northerly swell with significant wave heights of 8-12
ft is north of 16N between 19W and 60W. Seas are 4-7 ft north of
16N and west of 60W in the W Atlantic. Seas are also 4-7 ft
across the tropical Atlantic south of 16N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front
currently off of SE Florida will continue to move SE and reach
from 30N70W to the Florida Straits by Mon evening. The front will
then stall and gradually dissipate into mid-week. As this occurs,
weak high pressure will build W-NW along 24-25N across the Bahamas
and into S Florida through Wed. Large NE swell will continue
across the NE waters into Mon night. Low pressure is expected to
move eastward across NE Florida Wed night, then across the far NW
waters into Thu night.

$$
Mahoney
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