[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 061454
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe Discussion Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 06 2023

The center we were following overnight has become untrackable this
morning and appears to have become absorbed by the nearby frontal
zone.  In addition, the overall cloud pattern now has the look of a
classic extratropical cyclone, with Philippe's center resembling
the triple point of an occlusion.  Based on these recent
developments, Philippe is being declared a post-tropical cyclone.
The intensity remains 45 kt, mainly based on continuity.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or
020/14 kt, but this movement is becoming less representative as the
larger storm system takes over.  Philippe's remnant center and
another non-tropical low to the west are likely to interact and/or
merge with each other during the next day or two, but the overall
system is expected to move northward or north-northwestward at
increasing forward speed into the weekend.  This will bring the
center of the post-tropical cyclone to the coast of Nova Scotia or
Maine in about 48 hours, and then inland toward eastern Quebec
before it becomes absorbed by a separate but larger extratropical
low.

The post-tropical cyclone still has an opportunity to strengthen a
bit over the next day or so due to baroclinic influences.  Due to
the system's structure and forward motion, the strongest winds are
expected to be on the eastern side of the circulation and will
most likely affect portions of Atlantic Canada.  Weakening is
forecast after the system moves inland.

Future information on potential flooding impacts in the Northeast
United States can be found in products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov, and
in products issued by local National Weather Service Forecast
Offices on the web at http://weather.gov.

Additional information on marine impacts can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to move over portions of
Atlantic Canada and New England this weekend.  Interests in those
areas should be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and
heavy rainfall and monitor statements from their local weather
office.  The rainfall may produce isolated to scattered instances of
urban and flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 30.7N  64.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  07/0000Z 33.1N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  07/1200Z 36.3N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/0000Z 40.0N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/1200Z 44.9N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  09/0000Z 49.1N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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