[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 040233
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023

Even though the center of Philippe is more than one hundred miles
north of the Virgin Islands, heavy rains on the system's south side
continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
The cyclone remains poorly organized with the low-level circulation
appearing diffuse and convection remaining ragged and lacking
organization.  The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, which is near
the high end of the satellite intensity estimates.

Philippe is moving northwestward, or 310 degrees, at 10 kt.  The
models are in good agreement in showing Philippe turning
north-northwestward to northward on Wednesday when the storm moves
between a mid- to upper-level high over the central Atlantic and a
cut off low off the Florida coast.  These features should provide
the steering currents for Philippe through the remainder of the
week, causing a northward motion with some increase in forward
speed.  The storm is likely to be near Bermuda on Friday.  A larger
trough is expected to move across eastern Canada and the
northeastern U.S. late this week and cut off over the weekend.  In
response, Philippe could turn northwestward into northern New
England or Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days.

The storm continues to feel the effects of west-northwesterly shear
and dry air entrainment, and its poor structure suggests that
little, if any, intensification is likely in the short term.  The
models show some strengthening late this week and early this weekend
when Philippe likely gets some baroclinic support from the nearby
trough.  This interaction should also cause Philippe to gain frontal
features and become extratropical in 3 to 4 days before it reaches
northern New England or Atlantic Canada.  The NHC intensity forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered
flash flooding across portions of the United States & British Virgin
Islands through Wednesday.

2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday.

3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on
Bermuda late this week.  Interests on Bermuda should monitor the
progress of Philippe.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 20.1N  65.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 21.2N  65.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 22.8N  66.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 24.9N  66.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 27.8N  66.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 30.7N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 33.9N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 40.5N  66.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0000Z 49.0N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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