[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 18.9N 63.9W at 03/1500
UTC or 60 nm NW of Anguilla, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Satellite imagery continues to show Philippe
having an exposed center with moderate to strong wind shear
impacting the system. As a result, the convection stretches across
the far eastern Caribbean and is impacting most of the Lesser
Antilles. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from the
US Virgin Islands to northern Venezuela - from 11N to 19N between
59W and 66W. Meanwhile, the peak seas are near 20 ft with the 12
ft seas extending within 210 nm NE quadrant, 150 nm SE quadrant,
120 nm NW quadrant and 30 nm SW quadrant. Philippe is expected to
turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed
by a northward motion late Wednesday through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass just
north of the British Virgin Islands today and then move away from
the northern Leeward Islands beginning tonight. However, the
strongest winds and heaviest rains will likely occur in the
islands to the southeast of the center. Little change in strength
is forecast during the next couple of days. Philippe could begin
to strengthen a bit late this week. Swells generated by Philippe
will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 24W from 13N
southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted along the wave and the
monsoon trough from 06N to 13N between 22W and 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 51W from 17N
southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave axis from 05N to 19N between 49W and 53W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 04N35W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough and
tropical wave mentioned above from 03N to 14N between 35W and the
coast of Africa.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to build over the Gulf of Mexico. In the
eastern Gulf, a cold front is noted to the far SE basin and into
the Straits of Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are along and
south of the boundary. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted north
of the front across the eastern Gulf. A trough is along the Texas
coastline with moderate to locally fresh SE winds on the right
side of the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
from the SE Texas coast southward toward the central Gulf near 24N
and W of 90W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail across the
rest of the basin. Seas range 5 to 7 ft across the northern and
central Gulf with seas to 4 ft in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate by late this
afternoon. High pressure will follow the front supporting fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds, mainly over the eastern Gulf,
through tonight before winds start to diminish. Light to gentle
winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. A cold front is
forecast to reach the northern Gulf Fri night into Sat followed by
fresh to strong winds and moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Philippe.

Outside of Philippe's influence, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted across the lee of Cuba, Jamaica, and
Hispaniola. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in
the SW Caribbean along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of
13N between 75W and 83W.

Light to gentle winds are noted across the central and western
Caribbean with fresh or higher winds in the eastern Caribbean
associated with Philippe. Swells continue to impact the NE
Caribbean due to Philippe, with seas to 8 ft SW of the northern
Leeward Islands - in the far NE Caribbean region. Otherwise,
slight seas are noted across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.9N 63.9W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will move to 19.8N 64.4W this
evening, 21.2N 65.0W Wed morning, 22.9N 65.4W Wed evening, 24.8N
65.6W Thu morning, 27.3N 65.2W Thu evening, and 30.1N 64.4W Fri
morning. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward
Islands generated by Philippe will start to subside on Wed. Light
to gentle trades will be over the basin through the next few days,
except for moderate to fresh southerly winds in the eastern
Caribbean through early Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Philippe.

A cold front continues to press eastward across the western
Atlantic, extending from 31N58W to the Straits of Florida near
24N81W. Two areas of convection are associated with this front.
The first is scattered moderate convection noted across the
Bahamas and along the northern coast of Cuba, S of 25N and W of
70W. Another line of showers and thunderstorms is moving along and
east of the front from 21N to 31N between 54W and 66W. Moderate
to fresh NE winds continue off the east coast of Florida and the
northern Bahamas. Otherwise, light to gentle ENE winds are north
of the front. Seas range 7 to 10 ft north of the front, including
off the coast of Florida.

In the central Atlantic, high pressure continues to extend across
the portion of this basin with light to gentle winds. Between the
high pressure and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh ENE winds are
noted. In the eastern Atlantic, a trough extends south of a 1018
mb low pressure near 31N28W to 27N26W. Otherwise, high pressure
extends across this area of the basin with scattered showers off
the NW African coast. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted
off the coasts of Morocco, Mauritania and the Canary Islands. Seas
range 4 to 7 ft across the central and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.9N
63.9W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will move to 19.8N 64.4W
this evening, 21.2N 65.0W Wed morning, 22.9N 65.4W Wed evening,
24.8N 65.6W Thu morning, 27.3N 65.2W Thu evening, and 30.1N 64.4W
Fri morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves
N of the area to near 35.5N 63.3W early Sat. Otherwise, a cold
front extends from 31N56W to 24N80W. N of 29N, the cold front will
continue progressing eastward until moving east of the forecast
waters on Wed. S of 29N, the frontal boundary will dissipate late
this afternoon, but fresh to strong northeast winds will continue
north of the Bahamas through Wed before diminishing.

$$
AReinhart
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