[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Oct 03 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Philippe, at 03/0600 UTC, is
near 18.0N 62.4W. This position also is about 75 KM/40 nm
to the E of St. Martin. Philippe is moving toward the WNW,
or 300 degrees, 06 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. The radius of
tropical-storm force winds is: within 110 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or
greater are: within 240 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 150 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 20 feet.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 270 nm of
the center in the SE semicircle.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19W south of 18N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to the east of the
tropical wave. The precipitation also is close to the monsoon
trough.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W south of 17N. It
is moving westward 15-20 kt. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 600 nm to the east of the surface
trough, and within 420 nm to the west of the surface trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N17W 07N21W 07N27W 04N35W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N35W, to 02N44W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
04N to 10N from 35W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along 25N/26N between SE Florida and
90W. A surface trough continues from 90W to the coast of
Texas near 26N/27N. Strong NE winds are from 23N northward
from 90W eastward. Moderate seas are from 24N to 29N
between 82W and 94W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from the
surface trough northward from 90W westward. Slight seas,
and moderate or slower winds, are elsewhere. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N
northward within 450 nm of the coast of the U.S.A. and
Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong is spread
throughout the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from the SE Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico, through the NW corner of Guatemala,
to the north central Yucatan Peninsula, to 23N88W in the
Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 240 nm on either side of the surface trough.

A stationary front over the east-central Gulf will
dissipate on Tue. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
will expand southward from the N waters to the central
basin through Tue night before winds start to diminish.
Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through
Fri night. On Sat, a new cold front is anticipated to
reach the NW Gulf and cause increasing winds and
building seas in the western portion of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details
about Tropical Storm Philippe.

Moderate winds have been within 300 nm of Tropical Storm
Philippe in the NW quadrant. Gentle to moderate winds,
and slight seas, are everywhere else in the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N, from 75W in Colombia
westward, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: most of
the precipitation is from Panama and Costa Rica southward.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to
locally strong precipitation, are from 70W westward.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.8N 62.1W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1001 mb. Philippe will maintain
intensity as it moves to near 18.4N 62.8W Tue morning,
to near 19.7N 63.4W Tue evening, to near 21.3N 64.0W Wed
morning, to near 23.0N 64.4W Wed evening, to near 24.8N
64.7W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts
60 kt, then strengthen some as it begins to track
northeastward to near 26.9N 64.3W Thu evening, and to
near 31.6N 62.8W Fri evening. Philippe then will accelerate
northeastward well away from the area Sat and Sat night.
Otherwise, a stationary front extends from near 31N60W
southwestward to 26N71W, to across the central Bahamas
and to South Florida. N of 29N, the weak cold front will
continue progressing eastward until moving east of the
forecast waters on Wed. S of 29N, the frontal boundary
will dissipate on Tue, but fresh to strong northeast
winds will continue north of the Bahamas through Wed
before diminishing.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details
about Tropical Storm Philippe.

A cold front passes through 31N60W, to 26N70W, beyond south
Florida along 25N/26N, and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 480 nm to the south and to the southeast of the
stationary front. Scattered strong precipitation is from
29N northward between 40W and 50W. This precipitation is
associated with a warm front that is to the north of the area.

A surface trough is along 31N25W 24N32W. The surface trough
is the remnant feature of an earlier frontal boundary.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are within 600 nm to
the SE of the surface trough.

Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, span the
rest of the Atlantic Ocean, away from Tropical Storm
Philippe.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.8N 62.1W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 1001 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as it moves to
near 18.4N 62.8W Tue morning, to near 19.7N 63.4W Tue evening,
to near 21.3N 64.0W Wed morning, to near 23.0N 64.4W Wed evening,
to near 24.8N 64.7W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds
50 kt gusts 60 kt, then strengthen some as it begins to track
northeastward to near 26.9N 64.3W Thu evening, and to near
31.6N 62.8W Fri evening. Philippe will then accelerate
northeastward well away from the area Sat and Sat night.
Otherwise, a stationary front extends from near 31N60W
southwestward to 26N71W, to across the central Bahamas and
to South Florida. N of 29N, the weak cold front will continue
progressing eastward until moving east of the forecast waters
on Wed. S of 29N, the frontal boundary will dissipate on Tue,
but fresh to strong northeast winds will continue north of
the Bahamas through Wed before diminishing.

$$
MT/JA
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