[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Oct 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 17.1N 60.7W at 02/1500
UTC or 70 nm ESE of Barbuda, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Philippe continues to remain under
northwesterly wind shear. As a result, a large area of numerous
strong convection is noted south of the center from 10N to 17N
between 56W and 62W. Peak seas near Philippe are 20 ft with the 12
ft seas extending 150 nm in the NW quadrant, 130 nm in the NE
quadrant, 120 nm in the SE quadrant, and 60 nm in the SW quadrant.
Philippe is expected to move northwestward later today through
early Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast to
occur by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is
expected to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands tonight. Note that the strongest winds and heavy rains
will likely occur after the center passes. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Philippe could
begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the
week. Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extended along 43W
from 18N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 40W and 44W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to
03N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 11N between 12W to 29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front stretches across the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
extending from Ft. Myers, Florida to 25N88W. The tail end of the
stationary front is weakening across the western and central Gulf
of Mexico as mid-level high pressure builds across this area.
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the basin within 100
nm of the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, a trough extends along the
western Bay of Campeche from 25N97W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted along the trough from 18N
to 24N between 93W and 97W.

The latest ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh ENE winds north
of the stationary front. Seas range 4 to 7 ft. South of the
front, light to gentle winds are noted with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front over the central Gulf will
dissipate on Tue. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
expand southward from the N waters to the central basin through
Tue night before winds start to diminish. Light to gentle winds
are forecast elsewhere through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level cyclonic wind flow is noted in the central Caribbean.
This is giving way to scattered thunderstorms across the NW
basin, especially near the coast of Cuba, Hispaniola, and the Gulf
of Honduras. Deeper convection is noted in the SW Caribbean along
the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough, S of 12N between 75W and 84W.
Scattered thunderstorms are also noted off the NE Venezuela
coast.

Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin with moderate
winds in the Lee of the Greater Antilles. Seas are to 4 ft
across the Caribbean, confirmed by buoys around the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.1N 60.7W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Philippe will move to 17.8N 61.5W this
evening, 18.9N 62.0W Tue morning, 20.2N 62.4W Tue evening, 21.8N
62.7W Wed morning, 23.5N 62.8W Wed evening, and 25.3N 62.9W Thu
morning. Philippe will strengthen to a hurricane near 29.2N 61.5W
early Fri. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the
Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to
subside on Wed. Light to gentle trades will be over the basin
through the next few days, except for moderate to fresh SE winds
developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe.

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends into the area near
30N61W to 27N70W where the front stalls from that point to West
Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted off
the South Florida coast and across the Bahamas from 22N to 27N
between 74W and 80W. Showers are also noted within 50 nm of the
cold front. The latest ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh NE
winds north of the frontal boundary with seas 7 to 12 ft. South of
the frontal boundary, ASCAT shows moderate SW winds N of 28N and
E of 64W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds with seas to 6 ft are
noted N of 23N and W of 55W outside of Philippe's influence.

In the central Atlantic, the remnant low of Rina is located near
29N55W with a central pressure of 1011 mb. Thunderstorms are
pulsing near this low with numerous moderate to strong convection
is noted from 25N to 31N between 50W to 56W. Moderate to fresh
winds are occurring on the east side of the low with seas 8 to 10
ft. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the central Atlantic.
Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are noted along the southern
periphery of the ridging and N of the ITCZ. Under the influence of
the high pressure, winds are light to gentle. Seas are 8 to 9 ft
near the fresh winds, with 6 to 7 ft seas elsewhere in the central
Atlantic.

In the eastern Atlantic, high pressure extends across most of the
area. A trough stretches south of a low pressure near 33N25W with
a central pressure of 1018 mb to 25N34W. Showers with isolated
thunderstorms are noted along and within 120 nm west of the
trough. Moderate to fresh winds are noted along the southern
periphery of the surface high pressure to the coast of Africa.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere in the eastern basin.
Seas are 5 to 8 ft, with 4 ft seas near the Canary Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.1N
60.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb. Philippe will move to 17.8N 61.5W
this evening, 18.9N 62.0W Tue morning, 20.2N 62.4W Tue evening,
21.8N 62.7W Wed morning, 23.5N 62.8W Wed evening, and 25.3N 62.9W
Thu morning. Philippe will strengthen to a hurricane over near
29.2N 61.5W early Fri. Elsewhere, a cold front extends from near
Bermuda west-southwestward and becomes stationary over the N
Bahamas. North of 29N, the weak cold front will continue
progressing eastward until moving east of our waters on Wed. South
of 29N, the frontal boundary will dissipate on Tue, but fresh to
strong NE winds will continue north of the Bahamas through Wed
before diminishing.

$$
AReinhart
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