[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 011453
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

Despite continued northwesterly shear, a small area of deep
convection has persisted to the south and southeast of the center of
Rina this morning. The low-level center remains exposed in visible
satellite images, and recent ASCAT data suggests the center is
becoming less defined with weak winds noted on the southwest side of
the circulation. Based on the scatterometer winds, the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, with the strongest
winds confined to the southeastern quadrant of the storm.

Rina is still moving northwestward at 320/13 kt. The system is
expected to turn more northward later today and tonight while it
moves around the periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic. The track models are in good agreement, and the updated
NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one. The environmental
conditions are forecast to remain hostile going forward, and Rina is
forecast to gradually weaken over the next day or so due to the
negative influences of moderate to strong wind shear and dry
mid-level air. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models
suggest Rina could become a post-tropical remnant low by tonight,
and the system is forecast to open into a trough of low pressure and
dissipate by late Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 25.3N  54.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 26.8N  55.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/1200Z 29.3N  54.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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