[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 16.4N 58.2W at 01/0900
UTC or 180 nm E of Guadeloupe, moving W at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 21 ft. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 11N to 17.5N between 50W and
58W. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to
begin today and continue into tonight. A turn toward the northwest
with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday and Monday,
followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night. Little
change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Some
strengthening is possible by late Monday as Philippe begins to
move north of the Leeward Islands. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 24.3N 53.7W at 01/0900 UTC
or 640 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 12
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are
16 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 20N to 25N
between 48W and 54W. On the forecast track, a turn toward the
north and then north-northeast is expected tonight and Monday.
Weakening is forecast during the day or so. Rina is expected to
become a remnant low later today or tonight, and dissipate by
early Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rina
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 35W, from 05N to 20N, moving westward 10
knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convecion is from 13N to 21N
between 33W and 44W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plans of Guinea-
Bissau to 12N16W to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to
05N32W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 10W
and 15W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the NE waters from just south of
Cedar Key to New Orleans. Moderate to fresh winds are north of
the front. Fresh E winds are just N of the front or N of 27N all
the way to Texas adjacent waters. Moderate seas to 5 ft are
ongoing in this area of fresh winds. Otherwise, a surface trough
coming off the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting showers and tstms
in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will start to drift southward as a
cold front later today then dissipate Mon. As the front shifts
southward, the fresh winds, with locally strong winds, will expand
southward to the central basin through Wed before winds start to
diminish. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are forecast
elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.4N 58.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is
moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts
to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Moderate
winds are ongoing in the central Caribbean while mainly light to
gentle winds prevail elesewhere along with slight seas. Moderate
seas are across the Leeward Islands Atlantic passages due to
proximity of Philippe.

For the forecast, Philippe will move to 16.9N 58.9W this
afternoon, 17.6N 59.8W Mon morning, 18.4N 60.8W Mon afternoon,
19.2N 61.3W Tue morning, 20.4N 61.8W Tue afternoon, and 21.9N
62.0W Wed morning. Philippe will strengthen to a hurricane near
25.5N 61.6W early Thu. Rough seas across the forecast zones east
of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will
start to subside by the middle of next week. Mainly moderate trade
winds will prevail across the central Caribbean, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere through today. Light to gentle winds are
forecast in the Caribbean Mon through Thu, except moderate to
fresh trades developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details
about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.4N 58.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is
moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts
to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. A stationary
front extends from 31N70W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Another
stationary front extends from 31N30W to 29N40W to 31N50W. Surface
ridging dominate the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters,
providing gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas to
the west and east of both Rina and Philippe.

For the forecast W of 65W, Philippe will move to 16.9N 58.9W this
afternoon, 17.6N 59.8W Mon morning, 18.4N 60.8W Mon afternoon,
19.2N 61.3W Tue morning, 20.4N 61.8W Tue afternoon, and 21.9N
62.0W Wed morning. Philippe will strengthen to a hurricane near
25.5N 61.6W early Thu. Rough seas generated from Philippe will
impact the waters E of 65W through at least the middle of next
week. The stationary front N of the Bahamas will start to shift
south and east as a cold front, with fresh to locally strong winds
north of the front through Wed.

$$
Ramos
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