[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 010835
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 01 2023

Strong northwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Rina.  The
cyclone has been producing an area of deep convection overnight,
but it is disorganized and located well southeast of the exposed
center.  Any convection that has occurred near the center during
the past 12-18 hours has been very short-lived.  Given the tight
circulation that is noted in infrared satellite imagery, the
initial wind speed is held at a possibly generous 35 kt for this
advisory.  Scatterometer data later this morning should help to
determine if Rina is still producing tropical-storm-force winds.

Environmental conditions consisting of moderate to strong vertical
wind shear and dry mid-level air should cause gradual weakening
during the next day or two.  Rina is forecast to become a remnant
low later today or tonight, and the global models indicate that the
circulation will open up into a trough of low pressure and
dissipate within a couple of days.

Rina is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn northward later today as it is steered between a
low- to mid-level ridge to its northeast and a mid-tropospheric
trough over the western Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is
near the center of the guidance envelope, which is slightly east of
the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 24.3N  53.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 25.6N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/0600Z 27.7N  55.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1800Z 30.4N  54.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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