[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Oct 01 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Philippe, at 01/0300 UTC, is
near 16.1N 57.0W. Philippe is moving toward the SW, or
235 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. The radius of
tropical-storm force winds is: within 110 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 130 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 80 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or
greater are: within 135 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 135 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 120 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 20 feet.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
240 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is in the remainder
of the area that is within 450 nm of the center in the
SE semicircle.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Rina, at 01/0300 UTC, is near
23.5N 52.8W. Rina is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees,
12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts
to 45 knots. The radius of tropical-storm force winds is:
within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 50 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or greater are:
within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 150 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant; and within 120 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 20 feet.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
90 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. Scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is in the remainder of the area
that is within 210 nm of the center in the SE semicircle.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
latest Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
at www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from
20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong surrounds the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plans of
Guinea-Bissau, to 12N16W 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from
06N23W to 05N32W. The ITCZ is along 08N36W 12N41W 13N46W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 20N southward from 50W eastward, in general.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along 31N71W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through Florida along 29N, to SE Louisiana. An earlier
east-to-west wind boundary, along 26N/27N from 90W to the
coast of Florida, was delineating northerly winds to the
north of it, and SE winds to the south of it. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Atlantic Ocean
and in the Gulf of Mexico in the rest of the areas that are
between 76W and 90W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
also is to the northwest of the line that runs from 31N60W
to Andros Island in the Bahamas.

A surface trough curves from 27N91W to 22N92W, into
northern Guatemala. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is in the Yucatan Peninsula from the border with
Guatemala to 20N. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 26N southward
from the Yucatan Channel westward. Slight to moderate seas, and
mostly fresh to some strong NE winds, are from 26N northward.
Slight seas, and moderate or slower winds, are elsewhere.

A stationary front extends across the northern waters.
Moderate to fresh winds are north of the front. The
front will start to drift southward as a cold front later
this weekend then dissipate early next week. As the front
shifts southward, the fresh winds, with locally strong
winds, will expand southward to the central basin later
this weekend to the middle of next week before winds
start to diminish. Light to gentle winds and slight
seas are forecast elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough curves from 27N91W to 22N92W, into
northern Guatemala. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is in the Yucatan Peninsula from the border with
Guatemala to 20N. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 26N
southward from the Yucatan Channel westward.

A surface trough is about 420 nm to the east of SE Florida.
The southernmost part of the surface trough reaches the
Windward Passage. Precipitation: scattered strong is about
120 nm to the north of the SE Bahamas, within 90 nm to the
east of the surface trough. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N
to 27N between 70W and 75W. The GFS model for 700 mb shows
an inverted trough to be about 600 nm to the WNW of
Tropical Storm Philippe, and passing through Puerto Rico.
Precipitation: individual clusters of scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong are in the coastal waters that
are to the SW of Puerto Rico, in the central parts of the
Dominican Republic, in the northern parts of Haiti, and
in the SE parts of Cuba.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate
to locally strong convective precipitation, cover the
Caribbean Sea between 70W in the Dominican Republic and NW Cuba.
Slight to moderate seas are in the southern half of the central
one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Slight seas are in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh NE winds are from 17N in the
Caribbean Sea to 24N in the Atlantic Ocean between 64W and 72W.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 74W in Colombia
westward, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 16N southward from 80W
westward. This precipitation also is happening in the area
of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 01/0000 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN,
are: 0.28 in Guadeloupe.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.1N 57.0W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Philippe will move to
16.5N 57.7W Sun morning, 17.1N 58.6W Sun evening,
17.8N 59.4W Mon morning, 18.6N 60.3W Mon evening,
19.6N 61.0W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane
near 21.1N 61.2W Tue evening. Philippe will change
little in intensity as it moves near 24.8N 61.1W late
Wed. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the
Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe
will start to subside by the middle of next week.
Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere through the weekend. Light to gentle winds
are forecast in the Caribbean Mon through Thu, except
moderate to fresh trades developing in the
SE Caribbean Tue night into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details
about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina.

A surface trough is about 420 nm to the east of SE Florida.
The southernmost part of the surface trough reaches the
Windward Passage. Precipitation: scattered strong is about
120 nm to the north of the SE Bahamas, within 90 nm to the
east of the surface trough. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N
to 27N between 70W and 75W. The GFS model for 700 mb shows
an inverted trough to be about 600 nm to the WNW of
Tropical Storm Philippe, and passing through Puerto Rico.
Precipitation: individual clusters of scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong are in the coastal waters that
are to the SW of Puerto Rico, in the central parts of the
Dominican Republic, in the northern parts of Haiti, and
in the SE parts of Cuba.

A stationary front is along 31N29W 29N39W, beyond 31N49W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is from 27N northward between 44W and 48W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area
that is from 24N northward between 24W and 60W. The
convective precipitation is in the area of a surface trough
and the upper level cyclonic wind flow that are associated
with the larger-scale system. The surface trough is as much
as 180 nm to the south of the stationary front between 30W
and 46W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward from 50W eastward.

Fresh NE winds are from 18N to 28N from 25W eastward.
Fresh SE winds are from 08N to 23N between 35W and 48W.
Fresh winds are from 19N to 25N between Tropical Storm Rina
and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are from the Greater
Antilles northward. Moderate seas are from 10N to 28N
between 38W and 50W. Rough seas are from the waters that
are to the north of Tropical Storm Philippe, to Tropical
Storm Rina, and northward. Moderate seas are elsewhere
from 38W eastward, and from the Bahamas northward.
Slight seas are from the Bahamas southward.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.1N 57.0W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving southwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Philippe will move to 16.5N 57.7W
Sun morning, 17.1N 58.6W Sun evening, 17.8N 59.4W Mon
morning, 18.6N 60.3W Mon evening, 19.6N 61.0W Tue morning,
and strengthen to a hurricane near 21.1N 61.2W Tue evening.
Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves near
24.8N 61.1W late Wed. Rough seas generated from Philippe
will impact the waters E of 65W through at least the
middle of next week. A stationary front off the coast
of northern Florida will start to shift south and east
as a cold front, with fresh to locally strong winds north
of the front later this weekend into early next week.

$$
mt
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