[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301811
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic offshore of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W, then extends southwestward to 05N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 07N between 18W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong SE return flow is setting up across the western
Gulf west of 90W ahead of the next approaching cold front that
will push off the Texas coast on Friday. Flow is also
influencing the formation of a warm front along the coast of
Texas and Louisiana. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
over the north central Gulf. Seas are up to 10 ft according to
recent buoy observations in the NW Gulf, and 6 to 9 ft in the
remaining area of winds described above. Elsewhere,  moderate
east winds prevail across the Gulf with 3 to 5 ft seas

For the forecast, winds and seas diminish as the front reaches
from Pensacola, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by late Sat. The
front will reach from Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by late Sun,
then move southeast of the Gulf by late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from central Cuba to
northern Belize. High pressure north of the front is supporting
fresh NE winds over the Yucatan Channel and to the south of
central Cuba. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean. A recent
scatterometer pass revealed fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central and southwest Caribbean, with the strongest winds
off Colombia. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area. Moderate
trade winds with 3 to 5 ft area noted over the eastern Caribbean.
No significant convection is evident at this time.

For the forecast, the stationary front extending from central
Cuba to Belize will dissipate today. High pressure north of the
area will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough
seas through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 25N62W where it becomes
stationary, then continues to eastern Cuba near 22N77W. An area
of moderate to fresh NE winds is behind the cold front south of
30N and west of 60W. Seas range from 6 to 9 ft behind the front,
north of 26N, and east of 72W. 1021 mb high pressure is evident
east of the front, centered near 29N44W. Light breezes are noted
in the area of the high pressure, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas
in mixed swell. The pattern also supports moderate trade winds
farther south, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in a mix of local
wind waves with longer period NW swell.

For the forecast west to 55W, the cold front will continue to
move southeast, then stall along 21W north of the northern
Leeward Islands by Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E
winds, rough seas and NE swell will follow the front into Sat.
Looking ahead, another front will move off the NE coast of Florida
Sun night, and reach from just west of Bermuda to the northern
Bahamas by late Mon

East of 40W, strong winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are evident north
of 25N between 25W and 40W, associated with a gale force low
near the Azores. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in
NW swell are noted elsewhere east of 40W.

$$
Mora
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