[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved into the NW
Caribbean today and stretches westward from central Cuba to the
Yucatan Peninsula along 20N, then become stationary across the
peninsula to low pressure of 1014 mb near 21N95.5W. Midday
scatterometer data showed gale-force NW to W-NW winds occurring
between the Mexican coast and the trough and low, to the south of
21.5N. Altimeter data a short time afterwards suggested seas in
this area at 8 to 14 ft. Strong NE winds to 30 kt prevail east of
the trough to the Yucatan Channel and extend northward to 23N.
Seas in this zone are 7 to 12 ft. A 1027 mb high center was
analyzed across eastern Mexico, to the west of the low over the
Gulf. A 1030 mb high currently over northern Louisiana will move
east-southeastward later this evening and tonight, and should
cause the front to sink southward as a cold front into southern
Mexico. In response, winds and seas across the southwestern Gulf
should gradually subside tonight through Wed, with gale-force
winds offshore of Veracruz expected to end around sunrise Wed.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone
border along 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 05N24W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N24W to 02N38W to 01N50W. Scattered strong
convection is along the African coast and extends westward from
09W to 18W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from the Equator to 06N between 20W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is across
the SW Gulf, from the front northward to 24N, between 91W and 95W.
Moderate to locally heavy rainshowers are seen to the west of the
surface trough and across eastern portions of the Bay of Campeche.

Other than the stationary front mentioned in the Special Features
section, a broad surface ridge is dominating the rest of the
Gulf, centered on a 1030 mb high over north Louisiana. Fresh to
strong NE to E-NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found across
the west-central Gulf N of 23N. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and
3 to 5 ft seas are present just offshore from Texas and Louisiana.
Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient will support gale-
force winds off the Veracruz area through tonight. Conditions
across the Gulf will improve late tonight through Wed as the front
and low move southward and dissipate inland across Mexico.
Strong southerly flow will set up across the northern Gulf by Wed
night ahead of the next approaching front that will push off the
Texas coast on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula
along 20N. fresh NE winds prevail N of the front, across the
Yucatan Channel and adjacent western Cuban waters. Seas are 5 to 8
ft across this area. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
seen along the front, focused along the Mexican coast.

The Mid-Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from a 1018 mb
high near 26N55W to the southern Bahamas. This feature is
supporting a typical trade-wind pattern across much of the basin.
Convergent trades are generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the waters of western Panama and Costa Rica
south of 20N. Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE trade winds and
seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail across the south-central basin, north
of Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4
ft are noted just south of the Mona and Windward Passages.
Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the Mid-Atlantic ridge will shift eastward as a
cold front moves across the western Atlantic through Wed. Fresh
to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean will
diminish in coverage by Wed into Thu. The stationary front across
the NW Caribbean will sink southward and weaken tonight, with
fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft behind it, before
conditions slowly improve Wed and Wed night. The front will
gradually stall from central Cuba to northern Belize by tonight
before dissipating later in the week. Strong high pressure will
slide eastward across the Gulf coast states and into the western
Atlantic late Wed through Fri, and act to freshen the trade wind
flow across central and eastern portions of the basin Thu
afternoon through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda near 31N58W
southwestward through the central Bahamas, then continues across
central Cuba and into the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate
convection is seen up to 90 nm southeast of this boundary.
Moderate to fresh N-NW to NW winds are seen behind the front,
where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Another cold front curves southwestward
from the Azores across 31N32W to 23N43W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is ahead of the front to 25W. A
surface trough is along 35W, from 11N to 17N, where scattered
light showers are noted.

Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 20N
between the Africa coast and 58W/first cold front. Near the Cabo
Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft exist from 08N to 20N between the central Africa coast and
33W. To the west, light to gentle with locally moderate NNE to ENE
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident from the Equator to 20N
between 33W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and
seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will stretch from near
31N56W to central Cuba by Wed morning, and reach from 31N51W to
eastern Cuba by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds will persist
behind the front through Wed. The front will briefly become
stationary along 23N Thu and gradually dissipating through Fri
morning, as high pressure shifts eastward into the Atlantic
behind it. Winds across the area will veer E to SE Thu night and
Fri while becoming fresh to strong as the high pressure moves east
of Bermuda.

$$
Stripling
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