[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front stretches across
the southern Gulf of Mexico, from the northern coast of western
Cuba southwestward to the Mexican coast midway between Veracruz
and Coatzacoalcos. A tight pressure gradient will support gale-
force winds off the Veracruz coast through tonight. Rough seas
can be expected with these winds. The front will exit the basin
later today. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecast https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N33W. The ITCZ extends from 03N33W to 03N45W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N
to 08N and E of 15W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N to 08N between 20W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf.

A stationary front stretches across the southern Gulf of Mexico,
from the northern coast of western Cuba to the Mexican coast
midway between Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos. Fresh to strong
northeasterly winds continue behind the front south of 25N and
west of 88W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft, with the highest near the gale
force winds. Moderate north to northeast winds and seas 4 to 6 ft
prevail elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Bay
of Campeche and extend northward to 24N. Scattered light to
moderate rainshowers are occurring elsewhere W of 89W.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient will support gale-
force winds off the Veracruz coast through tonight. Rough seas can
be expected with these winds. Most of the front front will exit
the basin today, as the stationary front in the Bay of Campeche
dissipates tonight into Wed morning. Conditions across the Gulf
will improve on Wed. Strong return flow will set up across the
northern Gulf by Wed night ahead of the next approaching front
that will push off the Texas coast on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak high pressure extends across the north central Atlantic to
eastern Cuba. The pressure gradient between this high and low
pressure over Colombia is producing a large area of fresh to
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean south of 15N,
where seas are 7 to 10 ft. Off the coast of Barranquilla,
Colombia winds are near gale with seas to 10 ft. Skies are mostly
clear across much of the basin, with only isolated showers and
thunderstorms near the coast of Honduras. In the eastern basin,
moderate easterly winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft. In the
northwestern Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds are noted to the
south of the Gulf of Mexico stationary front, with seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds across the
south-central Caribbean will diminish in coverage by Wed into Thu.
The cold front will sink into the NW Caribbean today, bringing
brief fresh to strong NE winds behind the front in the Yucatan
Channel this evening. The front will gradually stall from central
Cuba to northern Belize by tonight before dissipating later in the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N65W to northern Cuba. Behind the
front, moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring with seas to
8 ft. Ahead of the front and north of 28N between 57W and 65W
southwesterly wind are strong to fresh with seas to 8 ft. Across
the rest of the western Atlantic, a weak ridge is beginning to
slide eastward in response to the front. Gentle to moderate S to
SW winds prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas.

A cold front extends from a 1079 mb low pressure near 38N35W to
22N50W. Ahead of the front, a 1015 mb low pressure is located near
25N35W with a trough extending north fo the low to 30N30W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front and trough
from 21N to 31N between 30W and 44W. Mainly gentle winds are
ahead and behind the front with seas 5 to 6 ft around it. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas 4 to 7 ft, except for
moderate winds in the Tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the strong winds ahead of the cold front
in the western Atlantic with moderate seas will diminish this
morning. The front will stretch from near 31N56W to central Cuba
by Wed morning, and reach from 31N51W to eastern Cuba by Thu
morning. Moderate to fresh winds will persist behind the front
through Wed. The front will briefly become stationary along 23N
Thu as high pressure shifts E into the Atlantic behind it. Winds
across the area will veer E to SE Thu night and Fri while becoming
fresh to strong as the high pressure moves E of Bermuda.

$$
AKR
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