[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretches across the
southern Gulf of Mexico, from the Straits of Florida west-
southwestward along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
then becomes stationary to the Mexican coast midway between
Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos. Strong northerly winds to near 30 kt
continue behind the front within 90 nm of the Mexican coast south
of 24N, while fresh to strong NE winds are ongoing north of the
front to 26N. Recent buoy observations and altimeter data indicate
that seas are generally 5 to 8 ft north of the front between 24N
and 28N, and are 8 to 12 ft across the SW Gulf, to the south of
24N. Gale-force northwesterly winds will develop across the waters
offshore of Veracruz during the next few hours and continue
across this area through Tue evening, then gradually diminish
through Wed. Seas are expected to peak at 12 to 14 ft there Tue
afternoon through evening. The front is expected to sink southward
across the Bay of Campeche and dissipates inland across Mexico
Tue night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecast https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 02.5N32W. The ITCZ extends from 02.5N32W to 02N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 04.5N
between 27W and 39W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf.

Two cold fronts have merged across the southern Gulf this
afternoon, and extend from the Straits of Florida west-
southwestward along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula then
stationary to the western Bay of Campeche. Strong northerly winds
to near 30 kt continue behind the front within 90 nm of the
Mexican coast south of 24N, while fresh to strong NE winds are
ongoing north of the front to 26N. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with the
strongest winds off the coast of Mexico, W of 95W. Seas range 4
to 7 ft elsewhere behind the front. Scattered thunderstorms are
noted in the Bay of Campeche and extend northward to 24N.
Scattered light to moderate rainshowers are occurring elsewhere W
of 94.5W.

For the forecast, a cold front extends across the southern Gulf to
the western Bay of Campeche and will meander through Tue before
sinking south of the basin Tue night. A tight pressure gradient
will support gale force winds across the western Bay of Campeche
this evening through Tue night. Peak seas are expected to build to
12-14 ft Tue afternoon through evening. Conditions across the
Gulf will then improve on Wed. Strong return flow will set up
across the northern Gulf on Thu and Thu night ahead of the next
approaching front that will push off the Texas coast late week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak high pressure extends across the central Atlantic to eastern
Cuba, producing a large area of fresh to strong trade winds
across the central Caribbean south of 15N, where seas are 7 to 11
ft per afternoon altimeter data. Skies are mostly clear across
much of the basin, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms
noted across the southeast Caribbean and over the Gulf of
Honduras. In the eastern basin, moderate easterly winds prevail
with seas 3 to 5 ft. In the northwestern Caribbean, gentle to
moderate winds are noted to the south of the Gulf of Mexico cold
front, with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge will shift east as a cold
front moves across the western Atlantic through Tue. Fresh to strong
trade winds across the south central Caribbean will persist
through Tue, then diminish in coverage by Wed into Thu. The cold
Gulf of Mexico front will sink into the NW Caribbean tonight into
early Tue and gradually stall from central Cuba to northern
Belize by Tue night before dissipating later in the week. Brief
fresh to strong NE winds can be expected behind the front across
the Yucatan Channel Tue night. High pressure will shift eastward
into the western Atlantic on Thu and act to freshen the trade wind
flow across much of the basin Thu through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front has moved well off the Florida coast today, and
extends from 31N72W southwestward across the NW Bahamas and
through the Straits of Florida. Ahead and behind the front, fresh
to strong winds are occurring north of 28N with seas to 8 ft east
of the front and 6 to 7 ft west of the front. Across the rest of
the western Atlantic, a weak ridge is beginning to slide eastward
in response to the front. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds
prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas.

In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from a 1010 mb low
pressure near 35N38W to 24N48W then becomes stationary from that
point to 24N63W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90
nm ahead of the cold front, to the E of 48W. Gentle to moderate
winds are ahead and behind the front with seas 6 to 7 ft around
it. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in this region with
seas 4 to 6 ft. Farther south, a trough extends from 19N53W to
13N57W. A cluster of thunderstorms is noted east of the trough
axis to 49W between 16N and 18N. Winds are moderate with seas to
8 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic, a trough extends across the area from
30N29W to a low near 25N35W. No significant convection is
associated with this feature. Moderate winds prevail along the
southern periphery of the low within 30 nm of the low center. A
second trough extends from 30N24W to 21N32W with no significant
convection around it. Seas to 6 ft are noted between these two
features. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the rest of the
eastern basin with seas 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N60W to central Cuba by Tue evening, and from 31N50W to eastern
Cuba by Wed evening. The front will bring strong winds ahead of
it through tonight, with moderate to fresh winds behind it through
Wed. The front will briefly become stationary along 23N Thu as
high pressure shifts E into the Atlantic behind it. Winds across
the area will veer E to SE Thu night and Fri while becoming fresh
to strong as the high pressure moves E of Bermuda.

$$
Stripling
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