[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large and long period swell
continues in association with 1006 mb low pressure (AL90)
centered near 28N39W. Seas 12 ft or greater are north of 24N and between
33W and 42W, with peak seas to 13 ft. The primary swell is from
the north with a period of 10-12 seconds. The system will continue
to move NE today, and will be north of the area by early Sat
morning. 12-13 ft seas and fresh to strong cyclonic winds are
forecast to impact TAFB waters through Sat with conditions
improving Sat night. This system has a low change of acquiring
some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day
or two. The chance for subtropical or tropical development is
likely to end by Sunday as the low moves over much colder waters.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N27W. The ITCZ continues from 04N27W to the coast of
French Guiana near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough, east
of 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1014 mb low pressure is located in the Bay of Campeche near
22N93W. A warm front extends eastward from the low pressure to
23N85W, where a stationary front then continues to SW Florida.
Scattered showers and isolated strong convection is present from
23N to 28N and between east of 90W. Moderate to locally strong
easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail north of 23N, except for
light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NE Gulf and Florida
Straits. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will lift north toward the northern
Gulf through Sun. Then, a new cold front will then push across the
basin Sun morning, extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz
Sun evening, and reach from near Fort Myers to the central Bay of
Campeche Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds will follow this
front, except in the SW Gulf where strong to near gale force winds
are forecast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea sustain fresh to locally strong
easterly trades in the south-central portion of the basin. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas
of 3-5 ft are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across
the east and central Caribbean while mainly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong
winds are forecast in the south-central Caribbean, near the coast
of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela Sun night through Tue
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Significant Swell Event.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N55W and
continues southwestward to 26N71W. No deep convection is noted
near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of
6-9 ft are found north of the front. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident south of 23N and west of 60W.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail west of 55W.

Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N41W to 29N42W
and a surface trough extends from 31N34W to 19N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 30W and 36W.
Seas 8 ft or greater are north of a line from 31N29W to 15N47W to
23N55W to 31N47W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are occurring
north of 11N to 22N and east of 25W. Seas in these waters are 5-7
ft. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N55W to
26N71W. The front will move SE through Mon while dissipating. A
new cold front is forecast to move off the coast of NE Florida on
Mon, and extend from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue
morning, and from 31N56W to the SE Bahamas Wed morning. Moderate
to fresh winds are expected on either side of the front.

$$
Delgado
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net