[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large and long period swell
continues in association with 1006 mb low pressure centered near
27.6N39.2W. Seas 12 ft or greater are from 24N to 30N between 35W
and 42W with peak seas to 14 ft. The primary swell is from the
north with a period of 10-12 seconds. The system will continue to
move NE today, and will be north of the area by early Sat
morning. 12-14 ft seas and fresh to strong cyclonic winds are
forecast to impact TAFB waters through Sat with conditions
improving Sat night. This system has a low change of acquiring
some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day
or two. The chance for subtropical or tropical development is
likely to end by Sunday as the low moves over much colder waters.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N26W. The ITCZ continues from 04N26W to the coast of
French Guiana near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from
02N to 06N between 14W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, 1015 mb low pressure is centered in the Bay of
Campeche near 22N93W. A warm front extends eastward from the low
pressure to 23N86W, where a stalled front then continues to Marco
Island, FL. Scattered showers and tstorms are from 23N to 26N
between 87W and 90W near the warm front. E to NE winds are
moderate to fresh north of the front, with gentle SE winds south
of the front. Seas are 3-5 ft across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will lift north today, bringing fresh
to locally strong winds in the northern Gulf through the weekend.
A new cold front will then push across the basin Sun morning,
extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun evening, and from
near Fort Myers to the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon morning. Fresh
to strong winds will follow this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging just N of the Caribbean continue to support
moderate to fresh trades over the central and SW waters, and
gentle to moderate winds in the eastern waters. Seas are 3-5 ft
across the basin, with locally 6 ft seas noted in the south-
central Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
across the east and central Caribbean while mainly gentle to
moderate E to SE winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to
strong winds are forecast in the south-central Caribbean, near the
coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela Sun night through
Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Significant Swell Event.

In the central Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N40W
to 27N41W and a surface trough extends from 31N34W to 20N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 31N between 31W and
37W. Seas 8 ft or greater are north of a line from 31N30W to
17N45W to 23N55W to 31N47W. In the western Atlantic, a cold front
extends from 31N56W to 27N72W. Winds are light to gentle on
either side of the front. Surface troughs producing showers and
tstorms are impacting the northern Leeward Islands and the Turks
and Caicos Islands. Across the basin north of 20N, light to
gentle winds mainly out of the east prevail. Gentle to moderate
trades are south of 20N. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will turn nearly
stationary over the NW waters on Sat, then move south on Mon
while dissipating. A new cold front is forecast to come off the
coast of NE Florida on Mon, and extend from near Bermuda to the
central Bahamas by Mon night, and from 31N58W SW to the SE Bahamas
Tue night.

$$
Mahoney
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