[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...INVEST-AL90 and a Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind
Warning...Gale-force winds are weakening soon...

A 1005 mb low pressure center, INVEST-AL90, is near 26N41.5W.
A dissipating stationary front trails to the southwest of the
low pressure center, toward the NE Caribbean Sea islands.
A stationary front extends away from the low pressure center,
beyond 31N38W. A surface trough is from 330 nm to 360 nm to the
east of the frontal boundary and the INVEST-AL90 low pressure
center, from 15N northward. The trough is along 31N35W 20N38W
14N43W 03N49W. Gale-force south to southwest winds, and sea
heights that range from 11 feet to 13 feet, are from 20N to 31N
between 35W and 46W. Expect also: winds 20 knots or less, and
sea heights that range from 8 feet to 12 feet in N to NE swell,
elsewhere from 19N northward between 37W and 68W, including in the
Atlantic Ocean exposures and passages. Rough seas, in general, are
from 15N northward between 40W and 60W. It is possible that this
weather feature may become a subtropical storm or a tropical storm
during the next few days. The primary swell direction has been
from the north, with a period of 10 seconds to 12 seconds. The
feature is forecast to lose its frontal characteristics gradually,
while it moves northeastward. Its chances of development into a
subtropical storm or into a tropical storm should end, by early in
the next week, as the system moves into cooler waters.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 270 nm on either side of the surface trough from 06N to
12N, and within 120 nm to the east of the surface trough from 27N
northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated
moderate, are elsewhere between 30W and 55W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast, at the website,
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W, to
04N30W, to 02N40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is
within 90 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 20W and 23W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 07N
southward from 40W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from the
ITCZ to 08N between 35W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N63W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the
NW Bahamas. The front is stationary from the NW Bahamas, to the
southernmost part of Florida that is just to the north of the
Florida Keys, to just off the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 19N92W just to the
north of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the northwest of the
stationary front.

A surface ridge passes through the Texas Gulf coast, to the
northwestern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

Moderate seas are in the southern half of the Gulf, except for
slight seas that are to the east of NE Mexico. Slight seas are in
the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly moderate to some fresh
NE winds are in the Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from the Everglades National Park in
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche where a 1013 mb low is
analyzed. The front will lift north by Fri, bringing fresh to
locally strong winds in the northern Gulf through the weekend.
A new cold front will then push across the basin Sun morning,
extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun night and from
Fort Myers to the Bay of Campeche Mon evening. Fresh to strong
winds will follow this front with the strongest winds affecting
the SW Gulf and potentially reaching gale force in the region of
Veracruz Mon evening into Tue morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

One surface trough curves from Belize to 15N82W, and to 10N81W
in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, just to the north of
Panama. Precipitation: scattered strong is in the coastal
plains/the coastal waters of SE Nicaragua. Rainshowers are
elsewhere from Jamaica westward.

A second surface trough is along 23N69W, through the Dominican
Republic, to 13N71W just to the north of the Gulf of Venezuela.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is between 64W and 80W. Isolated
moderate is also from 15N southward between 60W and 70W.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the eastern two-thirds of the
area. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Caribbean
Sea. Moderate seas cover much of the eastern two-thirds of the
area. The exception is for slight seas that are to the south of
the Dominican Republic along 70W. Slight seas are in the rest of
the Caribbean Sea.

A subtropical ridge extends across the northern Caribbean. This
will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and SW
Caribbean through Mon night. Winds in the south-central Caribbean
are forecast to pulse to strong speeds Sat night through Mon
night. Gentle to moderate trades in the E basin will increase to
moderate to locally fresh tonight through Tue night. Light to
gentle variable winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale-Force Wind Warning that will be ending soon.

A cold front passes through 31N63W, to the NW Bahamas. The front
is stationary from the NW Bahamas, to the southernmost part of
Florida that is just to the north of the Florida Keys, to just
off the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to a 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 19N92W just to the north of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 30N to 32N
between 56W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from
20N northward between 50W and 70W, and within 90 nm on either side
of the frontal boundary in the Atlantic Ocean.

A first 1020 mb high pressure center is near 26N57W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is between the SPECIAL FEATURES INVEST-AL90
low pressure center and frontal boundary, and the 31N63W-to-NW
Bahamas cold front.

A second 1020 mb high pressure center is near 29N26W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N
northward from the 31N35W 14N43W surface trough eastward.

Slight to moderate seas are from 20N northward from 30W eastward.
Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are from 10N to 20N from 30W eastward. Fresh
southerly winds are to the northwest of 28N60W 31N51W. Moderate to
fresh SW to W winds are from 26N northward between 60W and 73W.
Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A low pressure is centered E of the area with a dissipating
stationary front extending SW of the low to the northern Leeward
Islands adjacent waters. This system is bringing rough seas to
waters E of 63W, the regional waters of Puerto Rico, and the
Leeward Islands offshore waters. As the system moves farther from
the region, these seas will mostly subside by Fri night. Seas
to 8 ft will linger along the Windward Islands through Sat night.
Meanwhile, a cold front extends across the western Atlantic from
31N62W to the northern Bahamas near 26N77W then stalls across
South Florida. SW winds ahead of the front and N of 28N have
diminished to moderate to fresh speeds and extends to 55W. These
winds and rough seas to 9 ft will continue to affect the northern
waters through Fri evening when the front is forecast to move E of
the area. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to come off the
coast of NE Florida on Mon and extend from Bermuda SW to the
central Bahamas Tue morning.

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net