[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: In the central Atlantic, a cold front
extends from 31N38W to 1006 mb low pressure near 26.8N42.5W. A
stationary front continues from the low pressure to 17N50W to the
northern Leeward Islands. Ahead of the low and fronts, a trough
extends from 26N40W to 18N43W. Northerly gale force winds are
north of 27N between 42W and 45W, with peak seas to 19 ft.
Elsewhere north of 23N between 35W and 50W cyclonic winds around
the low pressure are strong to near-gale force. Seas 12 ft or
greater are north of a line from 31N38W to 22N44W to 31N53W with
peak seas to 19 ft. Elsewhere, seas 8 ft or greater are north of a
line from 31N34W to 20N41W to 18N65W to 31N58W, including
Atlantic Exposures of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto
Rico. Primary swell direction is N with a period of 10-12 seconds.
The low pressure is forecast to move east today and tomorrow, then
turn to the north and move out of the area on Saturday. Gales are
expected to end Friday afternoon, but winds will remain at near-
gale force speeds through Saturday. This system could become a
subtropical or tropical storm late this week or over the weekend
while it loses its frontal characteristics and moves northeastward.
The chances of subtropical or tropical development should end by
early next week when the system moves over cooler waters.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 07N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N18W to 04N33W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 31W and
41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The frontal boundary extending from Everglades National Park
across the southern Gulf parallel to the north coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula has stalled this morning. Moderate NE winds
continue within 90 nm north of the stalled front. In the western
Bay of Campeche, N to NW winds are fresh within 90 nm of the coast
of Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are 5-7 ft south of 23N. Elsewhere, high
pressure over NE Mexico and the SE United States continues to
build, providing for light to gentle NE winds and 2-5 ft seas
north of 23N.

For the forecast, rough seas associated with the stalled front in
the Bay of Campeche will subside by this evening. The front will
lift north by Fri, bringing moderate to fresh winds in the
northern Gulf through the weekend. A new cold front will then push
across the basin late in the weekend into early next week,
potentially bringing fresh to strong winds across the western
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

1010 mb low pressure is along the East Pacific Monsoon Trough in
the SW Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the low pressure
to the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to
13N west of 82W. A surface trough is south of Hispaniola along
70W, accompanied by scattered showers. Trades are mainly gentle
across the basin, except for moderate speeds detected by
satellite scatterometer in the central Caribbean this morning.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the northern
Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the
central and SW Caribbean through Mon night. Fresh winds in the
south- central Caribbean are forecast to reach strong speeds Sat
night into Mon night. Gentle to moderate trades in the E basin
will increase to moderate to locally fresh tonight through Mon
night. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail in the NW
Caribbean the entire forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on an
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.

A cold front extends from 31N69W to the Northern Bahamas, where a
stationary front continues to Hollywood, FL (much to the
disappointment of this forecaster, just north of Miami, FL). Ahead
of the front north of 28N between 63W and 70W, SW winds are fresh
to strong and seas are 8-9 ft. A weakening frontal boundary along
the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico is producing
scattered showers and supporting moderate trades. In remaining
waters across the Atlantic, prevailing trade winds are light to
gentle with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, as the W Atlantic cold front slides
eastward, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will continue to
impact the northern offshore waters N of 28N through tonight.
Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to come off the coast of
NE Florida on Mon.

$$
Mahoney
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