[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

In the subtropical central Atlantic waters, a stationary front
extends from 31N42W to a 1004 mb low near 27N43W. Then, a cold
front extends from the low SW to 17N50W where it transitions to a
stationary front that continues to the northern Leeward Islands
adjacent waters. An earlier scatterometer pass confirmed gale-
force SW winds in the SE quadrant of the low. Rough seas in long
period N to NW swell associated with the frontal system and low
range between 8 to 18 ft. These seas covers approximately the
waters N of 17N between 35W and 66W, highest in the vicinity of
the low. The low will track SE today and tonight while it weakens and
then it will move NE and N of the area on Sat. Gale force winds
are forecast to end tonight, however strong to near gale force
winds will accompany this low through Sat. This system could
become a subtropical or tropical storm late this week or over the
weekend while it loses its frontal characteristics and moves
northeastward. The chances of subtropical or tropical development
should end by early next week when the system moves over cooler
waters.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details about the
gale-force wind warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 07N18W where the ITCZ
continues to 04N30W to 03N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 03N to 08N between 27W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to build in the wake of a cold front
that this morning extends from Marco Island, Florida to the
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE
winds follow the front S of 26N with locally strong winds still
likely in the Bay of Campeche where rough seas to 9 ft prevails.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 26N where seas are in the
1-4 ft range.

For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to stall later this
morning, and fresh to locally strong northerly winds and rough
seas over the Bay of Campeche will diminish as well. The front
will lift north by Fri, bringing moderate to fresh winds in the
northern Gulf through the weekend. A new cold front will then push
across the basin late in the weekend into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low pressure of 1009 mb is embedded in the E Pacific extension
of the monsoon trough and is generating heavy showers over the
Nicaragua offshore waters. Winds across the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean are moderate to locally fresh from the east
with seas in the 3-6 ft range. Trade winds are gentle to moderate
in the E basin with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are
ongoing over the NW Caribbean with seas to 2 ft.

For the forecast, a nearly-stationary subtropical ridge reaching
the northern portion of the basin will support the continuation of
moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and SW Caribbean
through Mon night. Fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean are
forecast to reach strong speeds Sat night into Mon night. Gentle
to moderate trades in the E basin will increase to moderate to
locally fresh Thu night into Mon night. Light to gentle variable
winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean the entire forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning over the central subtropical Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N72W SW to Boynton Beach. The frontal
system and low pressure mentioned in the Special Features is
bringing moderate NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft Puerto
Rico and Dominican Republic offshore waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, winds over Puerto Rico offshore waters
will remain gentle to moderate today and seas will subside below
8 ft this evening. Fresh to strong winds offshore northern Florida
will continue ahead and in the wake of the cold front. The front
will reach from SE of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas adjacent
waters by this evening and move E of the area Fri evening. As this
cold front crosses the region, fresh to strong winds and rough
seas will continue to impact the northern offshore waters N of
28N. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to come off the coast
of NE Florida on Mon followed by moderate northerly winds.

$$
Ramos
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