[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1001 mb low pressure centered near
30N47W and a cold front extends from the low to the Leeward
Islands. The strong pressure gradient result in a small area of
N gale-force winds, north of 28N and west of the front to 48W.
Strong to near gale-force N winds are occurring north of 24N and
west of the front to 57W. Seas in these waters are 12-20 ft. As
this low tracks southeastward through tonight, gales and higher
seas at 17 to 20 ft will also shift southeastward. This
non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward across the
central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface temperatures
during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for this system to acquire tropical or
subtropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could
form by the latter part of this week or this weekend, as the system
turns northeastward by the weekend. This system has a low chance of
development in 48 hours and medium chance in 7 days.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the
Florida Big Bend area to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gale-force
N winds and 12-15 ft seas are present at the southwestern Bay of
Campeche, offshore from Veracruz, Mexico. By this evening, the
cold front will stretch from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the
northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and gales will end offshore
Veracruz by this afternoon. Strong winds and rough seas in the
wake of the front over the western Gulf will subside tonight into
Thu, when the front will stall from the Florida Everglades to the
Yucatan Channel.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both Gale
Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 05N33W to 07N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 10N and between 25W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above, regarding a Gale
Warning offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

A cold front extends from the Big Bend area of Florida to the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Stratocumulus clouds cover most of the
Gulf of Mexico as a cold and dry continental airmass has filtered
into the basin behind the aforementioned frontal boundary. A few
showers are seen off southern Texas, while no deep convection is
affecting the remainder of the Gulf. Fresh to near gale-force
northerly winds are present behind the cold front, with the
strongest winds affecting the waters south of 25N. Seas in the
area behind the front are 6-12 ft. Ahead of the front, moderate or
weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front extends the Florida Big Bend to
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds are ongoing off the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico. By this evening, the cold front will
stretch from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the northern tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula, and gales will end offshore Veracruz by this
afternoon. Strong winds and rough seas in the wake of the front
over the western Gulf will subside tonight into Thu, when the
front will stall from the Florida Everglades to the Yucatan
Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low pressure is located near 12N78W. A surface trough
extends from the low to the Leeward Islands, while the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough passes through Costa Rica to the
aforementioned low. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is present from 12N to 16N and between 73W and 79W. No
deep convection is seen in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate
to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted north of the
surface trough and low pressure and east of 76W, including the
Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weakening high pressure north of the basin is
relaxing the pressure gradient across the north-central Caribbean.
As a result, the strong winds south of Hispaniola will diminish
this afternoon and become moderate by tonight. Moderate or less
winds will prevail through the basin through Fri. Winds will pulse
to fresh north of Colombia during the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning associated with a low pressure in the central
subtropical Atlantic.

The pressure gradient between the cold front over the eastern
United States and a strong ridge in Nova Scotia result in fresh to
near gale-force southerly winds north of 28N and west of 73W. Seas
in these waters are 6-10 ft. No deep convection is noted in these
waters. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 6-12 ft are present
in the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W.

A cold front extends southward from the aforementioned low
pressure in the Special Features to 22N50W, then southwestward to
20N55W, where it becomes a stationary front that continues to the
Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of
25N and east of the front to 40W. Fresh to strong southerly winds
are found north of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in the area described
are 8-12 ft. Meanwhile, in the northeast Atlantic, the pressure
gradient between the high pressure SW of Ireland and low pressure
in NW Africa result in fresh to strong northerly winds north off
Morocco, along with seas of 7-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure centered E of the area
with a cold front extending SW of the low to Leeward Islands is
bringing fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas to
waters E of 60W. These conditions will improve by tonight.
However, large N swell associated with this system continue to
impact Puerto Rico, the Lesser Antilles, and adjacent Atlantic
passes through Fri. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds offshore
northern Florida will continue in advance of the next cold front
pushing off the Florida coast today. As this cold front crosses
the region through the end of the week, strong winds and rough
seas will impact waters on both sides of the front, N of 28N.

$$
Delgado
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