[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure is developing near 31N58W
along a cold front that extends SW to the Mona Passage. Gale force
N winds are developing along 31N just west of the center of the
low, and these winds will continue to spread SE today. Seas in
this areas have increased to 15 to 18 ft. This low will move SE
through the northeastern waters through tonight, bringing gale
force winds, with a broad area of strong winds on both sides of
the front N of 23N and E of 65W. Very rough seas of up to 22 ft
will accompany is area of strong to gale- force winds. As this low
reaches warmer sea temperatures during the next few days,
environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to
gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or
tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the
system moves E of the area and then NE. There is a medium chance
of formation for this system for the next 7 days.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretching from western
Louisiana to just south of the Rio Grande will move SE and reach
from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche tonight, then
across the far SE Gulf by Wed night. Strong to severe
thunderstorms, with locally high winds and seas, will be along and
just ahead of the cold front today for areas N of 28N. Strong N
winds will follow the front, with gales developing offshore
Veracruz this afternoon and continuing through Wed morning. Rough
to very rough seas of up to 15 ft will accompany the gale force
winds. Winds and seas will subside late Wed into Thu as high
pressure settles in.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both Gale
Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends west-southwestward from west of Guinea at 08N16W
across 05N30W to 05N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near and up to 150 nm north of this feature.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
southwestern Gulf.

Besides the cold front and its related weather mentioned in the
Special Features section, a broad surface ridge extends
southwestward from northern Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico.
Ahead of the front, fresh S winds have been increasing overnight
across the basin, and seas are 3 to 5 ft. A band of strong
thunderstorms extends along and 60 nm ahead o the cold front, N of
25N.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE through the Gulf
today and Wed, then stall near the SE edge of the Gulf into Thu.
As high pressure builds in its wake, winds and seas will subside
by Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A small and weak low pressure centered off the coast of Colombia
is producing a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. Nearby dry
air should prevent additional significant development of this
system as it begins to drift slowly west during the next couple of
days. This system has a low chance of formation in the next 48
hours and 7 days.

A low pressure trough extends NE from the center of the low to
near Puerto Rico, and the eastern extension of the East Pacific
monsoon trough stretches west from the low into Panama. Both of
these features are inducing scattered moderate convection within
about 60 nm of their axes. High pressure building in from the
north is leading to fresh NE winds just south of the respective
islands of the Greater Antilles, as well as nearby Atlantic
passes. Otherwise, winds in the Caribbean are moderate or less.
Seas are 2 to 4 ft, with locally higher seas where the fresh winds
are occurring.

For the forecast, high pressure building toward
the Greater Antilles will lead to fresh to locally strong NE
winds in the Windward Passage and just S of Hispaniola into Wed.
Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or less into late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section details on a Gale
Warning.

A cold front curves southwestward from a 1005 mb low east of
Bermuda across 31N58W to the eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered
moderate convection exists N of 23N within 120 nm E of the front.
A stationary front arcs from 31N25W to 21N36W to 22N42W.
Convection associated with this weakening feature has diminished
early this morning.  Aided by strong divergent flow aloft and
abundant moisture, a surface trough is producing scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from 08N to 20N between 19W and 30W,
including the Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE winds extend
behind the cold front W to 70W, then fresh E to SE winds dominate.
Ahead of the front, N of 25N and W of 50W fresh SW winds are
present, otherwise winds are gentle to moderate. Seas in the NE
winds are 8 to 12 ft, with 5 to 8 ft seas elsewhere across the
basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, regardless of development of the low
pressure in the Special Features section, northerly swell will
lead to seas of 12 ft or greater E of 65W and N of 20N into late
week. Fresh to strong winds will develop offshore northern
Florida by Wednesday in advance of the next cold front.

$$
Konarik
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