[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong to gale-force S to SE winds
are present well E of a low pressure center, generally N of 30N
between 65W and 69W this morning. Seas in this area are 12 to 15
ft. As the low center moves NE away from the area, winds will
subside below gale force this morning, but strong mainly S winds
will prevail through the weekend, as a surface trough trailing
from the low evolves into a cold front that will slowly drag E
through areas N of 22N between 55W and 70W this weekend. Seas will
remain elevated at 8 to 11 ft across a broad area, with seas in
excess of 12 ft expected to prevail S of Bermuda, extending S to
about 28N between 60W and 70W. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and latest Offshore Water
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding for SE Cuba and Hispaniola: The low
pressure that was considered Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two
is very disorganized and elongated, and now poses no threat of
tropical formation. However, numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection remains over a broad area from 15N to 25N between 65W
and 75W. The low has emerged into the Atlantic through the
Windward Passage early this morning, and will accelerate NNE along
a frontal boundary that will become more defined this weekend.
This frontal boundary and a trailing trough that will extend
southward through the central Caribbean will keep the showers and
thunderstorms continuing over portions of Hispaniola and SE Cuba
into Monday. Heavy rainfall from this convection is likely to
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in hilly terrain.
More localized heavy rainfall may lead to urban flooding across
portions of Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos, and the SE Bahamas.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Significant North Swell in the Central Atlantic: Large north
swell generated by an earlier storm at the north Atlantic has
reached 22N in the central Atlantic between about 30W and 60W.
Seas of 10 to 13 ft are noted N of 24N between 35W and 55W. This
swell will gradually decay this weekend, with seas falling below
12 ft by Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml latest Offshore Water
Forecast west of 55W at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau coast
then reaches southwestward to 07N17W. An ITCZ continues from
07N17W across 05N30W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is
present south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 09N between the
Guinea-Liberia coast and 15W. Similar convection is found up to
180 nm north and 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from just offshore the western tip of
Cuba to Florida Bay. Another weak surface trough extends from the
northern Yucatan Peninsula to 25N92W. Neither trough is producing
any convection. High pressure of 1016 mb centered offshore the
Lower Texas coast is building eastward. Gentle to moderate N winds
dominate the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the troughs will drift S and dissipate today.
High pressure will build across the area this weekend, producing
gentle to moderate N winds today, then E and SE winds Sun.
Southerly return flow will increase over the western Gulf Sun
night ahead of the next cold front which will move off the Texas
coast Mon night into Tue. Gale conditions are likely in the wake
of the front over the west- central and SW parts of the Gulf Tue
through Wed with seas forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details the heavy
rain and flooding potential over Hispaniola and SE Cuba.

A surface trough extends from the eastern tip of Cuba across
eastern Jamaica into the SW basin, where it connects to the
eastern extension of the East Pacific Monsoon trough near 11N81W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm east and west
of the trough axis. A weak low pressure of 1007mb is centered just
SE of Cozumel, Mexico, and is producing no convection. Fresh NW
winds prevail to the W of the aforementioned surface trough, with
fresh SE winds in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft,
except 3 to 5 ft in the NW basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough will extend through the
central Caribbean into Monday, continuing a threat for heavy
rainfall over SE Cuba and Hispaniola.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
gales and large north swell in the western and central Atlantic.

Outside the areas mentioned in the Special Features section:
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the NE
Florida coast in association with a weak low pressure and
stationary front. No significant convection is elsewhere, but a
cold front extends from 31N30W to 25N40W where it transitions to a
stationary front to 23N55W, and then becomes a retreating warm
front that extends NW to Bermuda. N of the frontal boundary, fresh
to strong mainly NE winds dominate. To the south, mainly moderate
trades prevail. W of 75W, mainly moderate winds prevail with
fairly erratic directions due to various subtle features over the
region. Seas of 8 to 11 ft dominate the waters NW of a line from
31N30W to 10N60W, with 4 to 7 ft seas to the SE. The except to the
higher seas are waters SW of the Bahamas, where 2 to 4 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong winds and rough seas will
prevail in a corridor N of 22N between 55W and 70W this weekend,
ahead of a slow moving cold front. The remnants of Potential
Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two have emerged in the Atlantic out of
the Windward Passage early this morning, and these remnants will
race NE along the frontal boundary into early next week.

$$
Konarik
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