[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest AL98 is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two, which
is centered near 15.7N 81.4W at 16/0000 UTC or 300 nm WSW of
Kingston Jamaica, moving NNE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the
western Caribbean between 72W and 82W. On the forecast track, the
center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica late
Friday, southeastern Cuba early Saturday, and the southeastern
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Strengthening
is forecast during the next few days, and the disturbance is
expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. Potential Tropical
Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions
of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola
through Monday morning. Minor coastal flooding is possible in
areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Swells
generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of
Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Ntermediate NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning...

A complex frontal system is off the SE coast of Florida, between
Miami and Andros Island in The Bahamas, which is connected to a
1008 mb low near 25N79W. The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure over the SE CONUS extending a ridge to the W Atlantic
waters off the Carolinas, and low pressure associated with the
frontal system is supporting gale force winds from 26N to 29N
between 72W and 80W. Rough seas in the 8 to 18 ft range coincide
with this area of very strong winds. Aside from these conditions,
scattered showers are ongoing over the SW N Atlantic waters N and
E of the Bahamas as well as across the Great Bahama Bank. The low
will move NNE and move N of the area Fri evening carrying gale
force winds on its path. Strong to near gale force winds and rough
seas, however, will continue to affect the NE offshore waters
through the remainder weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...Significant N Swell Event...

A storm system that is well to the north of our area is generating
sea heights that range from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 25N northward
between 39W and 61W. The seas will continue to spread eastward
and southward, reaching 23N by Friday morning. The maximum sea
heights will build to 18 feet from 30N northward tonight into
Friday. The sea heights of 12 feet will drift mainly to the north
of the area and to the east of 40W by Saturday morning. Please,
read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 04N32W to 04N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between 31W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An occluded front extends from 1006 mb low pres near 25.5N88W to
24N84W then cold front to the western tip of Cuba. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds and rough seas associated with this system are
affecting the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 25N and E of 90W while fresh
NE to NW winds are affecting the central basin between 90W and
93W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are elsewhere across the
western gulf. There is no convection associated with this frontal
system in the basin.

For the forecast, the low will drift southward while weakening
through Fri. Fresh winds across the NE Gulf will diminish tonight.
High pressure will build across the area this weekend, with
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft or less through the
weekend. Southerly return flow will increase over the western Gulf
ahead of the next cold front which will move off the Texas coast
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two.



For the forecast, Twenty-Two will move to 15.7N 80.8W Fri
morning, 17.0N 79.0W Fri afternoon, 19.2N 76.6W Sat morning, 21.9N
73.3W Sat afternoon, 25.3N 69.0W Sun morning, and become
extratropical and move to 29.4N 64.5W Sun afternoon. Twenty-Two
will change little in intensity as it moves near 38.0N 54.1W Mon
afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning, a
significant N swell event in the north central Atlantic Ocean,
and Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two.


For the forecast W of 55W, Twenty-Two will move to 15.7N 80.8W
Fri morning, 17.0N 79.0W Fri afternoon, 19.2N 76.6W Sat morning,
21.9N 73.3W Sat afternoon, 25.3N 69.0W Sun morning, and become
extratropical and move to 29.4N 64.5W Sun afternoon. Twenty-Two
will change little in intensity as it moves near 38.0N 54.1W Mon
afternoon.

$$
Ramos
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