[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Storm Warning: A 1006 mb low
pressure system is centered near Key Largo, FL. A warm front
extends eastward from the low to the central Bahamas, while a
stationary front extends westward into the SE Gulf. Numerous
showers and isolated tstorms are found west of 70W to the east
coast of Florida. A scatterometer satellite pass from late Wed
evening captured 34-42 kt easterly winds off SE Florida.
Subsequent surface observations from the overnight hours suggest
sustained winds up to 45 kt with frequent gusts to storm force are
occurring to the east of South Florida through the northwest
Bahamas, from 25.5N to 28N, and west of 77.5W. The low pressure is
forecast to strengthen and move north-northeastward. The storm
warning is forecast to end by this afternoon, but gales of 35-45
kt will continue is association with the low until it moves north
of 31N Fri night. These winds will affect the area north of 25N
and west of 65W though Fri. Seas of 12 to 13 ft are already
occurring and are forecast to build to up to 20 ft by tonight to
the north of the northwest Bahamas, and east of central Florida.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea (Invest 98L): A 1007
mb low pressure system near 13N82W is producing numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection from 12.5N to 18.5N and between
74W and 82W, including over Jamaica. Fresh to strong winds are
likely associated with the deep convection. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this
system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression could
form by this weekend as the system moves northeastward across the
western and central part of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains that
could result in flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the
Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles
through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the
Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development
within the next 48 hours.

Significant N swell event: A storm system well north of our area
is producing seas of 12-16 ft north of 28N and between 44W and
63W. Seas will spread eastward and southward, reaching 26N
between 35W and 55W by Friday morning. Peak seas will build to 18
ft north of 30N late today into Friday. 12 ft seas will drift
mainly north of the area and east of 40W by Saturday morning.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues to be analyzed inland over Africa.
The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 05N33W and to 06N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 43W
and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 27N88W. An occluded front
extends from the low to a triple point at 25N85W. A cold front
extends S from the triple point to the W tip of Cuba. A stationary
front extends east from the triple point to a 1006 mb low pressure
centered over Key Largo, FL. Scattered showers are noted over the
NE Gulf. Strong to locally near-gale force winds prevail over the
NE Gulf north of 25N and east of 91W due to the low pressure,
where seas are 8 to 13 ft. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf,
moderate to fresh N winds with seas 5 to 9 ft are present.

For the forecast, the low will drift southward while weakening
through Fri. Strong to near-gale winds and rough seas will
continue through today across the NE Gulf. Marine conditions are
expected to improve by the end of the week, with high pressure
building across the basin this upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details on
Invest 98L and the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea.

Aside from Invest 98L, scattered moderate convection is noted just
south of east-central Cuba. Isolated tstorms are noted in the far
SW Caribbean, just offshore of western Panama and eastern Costa
Rica. Scattered showers and tstorms moving from east to west are
reaching the southern Windward Islands. This activity extends from
10N to 13N between 58W and 62W. Fresh to strong easterly winds
prevail across the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-9
ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are
evident in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean through late today. AL98 is a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this
system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression could
form by this weekend as the system moves northeastward across the
western and central part of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, this system will produce areas of heavy rain, and
locally gusty winds, over portions of the central and western
Caribbean through the end of this week. There is a medium chance
of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Storm Warning and a
significant N swell event in the north-central Atlantic.

In the rest of the basin, a cold front extends from 31N41W to
25N50W to 22N64W, where it transitions into a stationary front
that continuous to 24N76.5W. A few showers are noted near these
boundaries. Fresh to strong northerly winds are occurring behind
the cold front, as shown by an earlier scatterometer satellite
pass. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8-12 ft are found
north of 28N and between 35W and the cold front. Fresh to strong
E winds are found north of the stationary front, where seas are 9
to 11 ft.

A narrow surface ridge with gentle winds and 5-7 ft seas extend
along 26N35W to 22N56W. To the south, over the tropical Atlantic,
fresh NE to E trades and 7 to 9 ft seas prevail from 06N to 18N
and west of 35W.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary extends from 23N55W to 1006
mb low pressure near Key Largo, FL. Gale force winds with frequent
gusts to storm force are occurring to the east of South Florida.
Gale force winds will continue with this low as it moves toward
the NNE through Fri, affecting waters north of 25N and west of
65W.

$$
Hagen
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