[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low pressure system is
centered near 27N88W. An occluded front extends SE from the low
to 25N85W. A cold front extends southward from 25N85W to the
Yucatan Channel, while a stationary front extends westward from
25N85W to a 1009 mb low near the Florida Keys. Scattered showers
are noted north of the low. Strong to near gale-force winds with
gusts to gale-force are found north 26N and east of 92W. Seas in
these waters are 8-12 ft. The low will drift southward while
weakening through Fri. Near-gale winds and rough seas will
continue through Thu across the NE Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale
force are possible through tonight. Marine conditions are expected
to improve by the end of the week, with high pressure building
across the basin this upcoming weekend.

Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A 1009 mb low
pressure system has formed near the Upper Florida Keys. A warm
front extends eastward from the low to the central Bahamas, while
a stationary front extends westward into the SE Gulf. Numerous to
scattered showers are found west of 70W, with the deepest
convection affecting South Florida and surrounding waters. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured 30-40 kt easterly
winds off SE Florida. A tight pressure gradient also result in
strong to near gale-force winds over most of the SW North
Atlantic, mainly west of 65W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft.
Gale-force winds will spread northward, persisting north of 27N
and west of 65W through Fri, and supporting seas of 12-18 ft. The
gales will lift N of 31N Fri evening, while seas gradually
subside.

Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following
website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the gales.

Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea (Invest 98L): A 1008
mb low pressure system near 13N82W is producing numerous moderate to
isolated strong convecting from 12N to 18N and between 74W and 83W.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to
strong winds are associated with the deep convection. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this
system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression could
form by this weekend as the system moves northeastward across the
western and central part of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains that
could result in flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the
Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles
through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the
Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development
in the next 48 hours.

Significant N swell event: A storm system well north of our area
is producing seas of 12-15 ft north of 29N and between 45W and
62W. Seas will spread eastward and southward, reaching 26N between
35W and 55W by Friday morning. Peak seas will build to 18 ft
north of 30N late Thursday into Friday. 12 ft seas will drift
mainly north of the area and east of 40W by Saturday morning.

Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following
website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues to be analyzed inland over Africa.
The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 05N33W and to 06N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 11N and between 43W
and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the gale-force low pressure system in the NE Gulf.

In the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclonic flow result in
continental dry air filtering southward and encompassing most of
the basin, suppressing the development of deep convection.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found
west and south of the non-tropical gale-force low. Moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 3-6 are noted in the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, an occluded front extends from 1008 mb low pres
near 28N88W to 25N85W then cold front to the Yucatan channel. The
low will drift southward while weakening through Fri. Near-gale
winds and rough seas will continue through Thu across the NE Gulf.
Frequent gusts to gale force are possible through tonight. Marine
conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week, with
high pressure building across the basin this upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details on
Invest 98L and the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea.

Aside for Invest 98L, no deep convection is noted in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the 1029 mb
ridge over the eastern United States and lower pressures in
northern South America and SW Caribbean support fresh to strong
easterly winds prevail across the central Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of
4-7 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent in the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean through late Thu. AL98 is a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this
system over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression
could form by this weekend as the system moves northeastward
across the western and central part of the Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, this system will produce areas of heavy
rain, and locally gusty winds, over portions of the central and
western Caribbean through the end of this week. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning and a
significant N swell event in the north-central Atlantic.

In the rest of the basin, a cold front extends from 31N44W to
25N55W and to 23N66W, where it transitions into a stationary front
that continuous to the gale-force low near the Florida Keys
described in the Special Features section. A few showers are noted
near these boundaries. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
occurring behind the fronts as shown by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. These winds also support seas of 8-16 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 31N53W. Fresh to strong SW winds and
seas of 8-12 ft are found north of 27N and between 36W and the
cold front.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb
high pressure system centered off Portugal. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
support fresh to strong easterly winds south of 17N and west of
35W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas
occurring near 11N46W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary extends from 31N44W to the central
Bahamas to the Florida Keys. A 1009 mb low pres has formed near
the Florida Keys. Gale force winds will develop tonight east of
Florida as the low move slowly northeastward along the front. Gale
force winds will then persist north of 27N and west of 65W Thu
afternoon through Fri, before lifting N of 31N Fri evening.

$$
Delgado
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