[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A stationary front passes through 25N in South Florida,
toward the north central Gulf of Mexico, to a 1012 mb
26.5N 93.5W low pressure center. A cold front continues
from the 1012 mb low pressure center, to the north central
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate, to isolated to
widely scattered strong, spreads from the central Gulf
of Mexico toward the north and toward the east. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere in the Gulf of
Mexico. Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights that range
from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 27N to 29N between 89W and 91W.
Expect elsewhere: N to NE winds that range from 20 knots to
30 knots, and seas that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, from
18N to 30N between 84W and 98W, except for: NW to N WINDS
from 26N southward. Please, read the High Seas Forecast,
MIAHSFAT2, at the following website,
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...The Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea...

A surface trough is along 13N81W, skirting the coasts of
NE Nicaragua and E Honduras, through N Belize, through the
southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N93W in the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is within 280 nm to
the NE of the surface trough, and from the monsoon trough
to 14N between 78W and 81W. The environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for development of this system. It
is likely for a tropical depression to form during the
latter part of the week. The system is forecast to move
northeastward, through the western and central parts of
the Caribbean Sea. Anyone who has interests in Jamaica,
Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, should monitor
the progress of this system. This system has the potential
to produce heavy rains in parts of the Caribbean Sea coast
of Central America and the Greater Antilles, through the
end of this week. There is a high chance of tropical
cyclone development during the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland, in Guinea. A surface
trough is in the coastal plains/the coastal waters of Africa
from Guinea northward. The ITCZ is along 06N16W 07N30W
07N44W. A surface trough is along 26N38W 20N42W 12N44W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are
from 10N northward between 30W and 60W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
02N to 18N between 30W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the gale-force winds forecast that is related to the
1015 mb 25N94W low pressure center.

Slight to moderate seas, and mostly moderate to some fresh
NE winds, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from near Everglades City, Florida
to 27.5N88.5W then continues as a warm front to 1012 mb
low pressure near 26.5N93.5W. A cold front extends from the
low to the central Bay of Campeche. The low will continue
to move ENE through the week, gradually dragging the cold
front across the Gulf waters. Gale force winds and rough
seas are expected through Wed across the northern semicircle
of the low. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the
end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong easterly winds, and rough seas, are in the
central one-third of the area. Moderate seas cover much of
the rest of the Caribbean Sea, except for the slight
seas that are within 60 nm to 120 nm from land. Fresh to
moderate NE winds are in the rest of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from 74W in Colombia, beyond
Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm to the south
of the monsoon trough, in Colombia along 77W/78W.

The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 14/1200 UTC, are: 0.89 in Trinidad, and 0.25
in Monterrey in Mexico, and 0.23 in San Juan in Puerto Rico,
according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through late Wed. A broad area of low pressure
is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean in
the next few days. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for additional development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form toward
the end of this week while the system begins moving
northeastward across the western and central portions
of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
this system has the potential to produce heavy rains
over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America
and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week.
There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development
in the next 7 days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N47W, to 28N60W 26N70W 25N76W.
The front becomes stationary at 25N76W, and it continues to
the southern parts of Florida that are along 25N. A surface
trough is along 24N71W, to the Windward Passage. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward
from 30W westward.

A surface trough is along 26N38W 20N42W 12N44W. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 10N
northward between 30W and 60W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 18N
between 30W and 58W. This precipitation also is near the
ITCZ.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward
from 36W eastward, with a surface ridge. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is within 180 nm on either side of 14N60W
16N50W 21N40W 27N26W.

Moderate to rough seas are from 29N northward from 40W
eastward, and from the 31N47W 28N60W 26N70W 25N80W frontal
boundary from 65W westward. Moderate seas cover the rest of
the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh NE winds are to the south of the
line 27N23W 20N40W 16N60W. Strong NE winds are from the
frontal boundary northward from 70W westward. Fresh NE winds
are from 13N to 19N from 20W eastward. Moderate to fresh
NE winds are from the frontal boundary northward between
60W and 70W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in
the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 28N55W to the central Bahamas and
then stationary to S Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds
prevail NW of the front with seas to 10 ft. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front N of the area by the
middle of the week. This will support an area of strong
to near-gale winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W
beginning on Wed. A broad area of low pressure may develop
over the waters W of 70W the second half of the week, with
the strong to near-gale force winds shifting to the waters
N of 27N and E of 70W toward the end of the week. Gale force
winds are possible N of 27N Thu and Thu night.

$$
mt/jl
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